The Greatest Generation, those who came of age during the Great Depression and World War II, are almost gone. The few who remain are now in their 90s, if not older. Those who followed them, the Silent Generation, have now entered old age, with even the youngest in their early 70s. While little recognized, the gradual passing of these two generations has important implications for both collectors of, and investors in, 20th century antiques. As we shall see, demographics are inexorably intertwined with the antiques market.
As people reach an advanced age, they tend to move to nursing homes or downsize to more convenient living arrangements. They also sometimes die. These life changes often lead to the dispersal of some or all of their personal estates – including items that are often of great interest to connoisseurs of fine 20th century antiques. Furthermore, there is a direct relationship between the age of a person when his estate is liquidated and the age of items contained in that estate.
For example, throughout the 20th century it was common for middle and upper class families to gift a high end watch, pen, piece of jewelry or other fine luxury good to their children upon reaching adulthood. This would often occur after graduation from high school or college, when the young adult was in his late teens to early twenties. So it is reasonable to conclude that an individual’s accumulation of estate items usually begins around this age – 20 years old. These personal goods eventually become tomorrow’s antiques, with the very finest of them reaching the status of investment grade.
Of course this analysis is slightly simplistic. The average person will accumulate and dispose of many personal items – future antiques – throughout his life. In addition, an individual may be gifted family heirlooms that are already 30, 40 or even 50 or more years old when given. But the fact remains that most of the items an average person accumulates over his life will be purchased new, starting when he reaches age 20, give or take.
Average life expectancy in the United States – and most of the developed world, as well – is around 80 years. Therefore, a little simple math lets us know that many of the items coming into the antique market today will generally be no more than 60 years old. This is calculated by taking the average life expectancy of 80 years and subtracting 20 years, the starting age of accumulation. This means that currently, in 2016, the bulk of antiques hitting the market from estate liquidations will be no older than the mid 1950s. Demographics make this a near certainty.
The estate supply of iconic solid gold wristwatches, classic fountain pens, elegant sterling silver cigarette cases and other fine objets d’art from the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s is nearing exhaustion. Yes, there will be exceptions; some people live to age 100 and never throw anything out. The occasional investment grade Art Deco or Retro piece will still surface from time to time. But the demographics are both established and inexorable; pieces from this era are becoming ever scarcer and more desirable.
This epiphany makes one thing absolutely clear. If you are interested in investing in or collecting Art Deco or Retro antiques from the 1920s, 1930s or 1940s, do not delay. Make every effort to buy as many high quality examples that you can find, as soon as possible. The supply of these underappreciated works of art will only shrink further as the years roll on.
But there is a notable corollary to our initial conclusion. Right now there are still ample amounts of vintage Mid-Century 1950s and 1960s items for sale on sites like eBay and Etsy at reasonable prices. But this apparently robust inventory is really a temporary artifact of demographics. The older generations who have these antiques stashed in their dresser drawers or buried in their closets are currently in the process of releasing them into the market en masse. Within a mere 10 to 15 years these coveted Mid-Century antiques will also become increasingly scarce. And their prices will undoubtedly increase significantly when that happens. Invest accordingly.
