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Invest Like a Czar with Imperial Russian Antiques

Invest Like a Czar with Imperial Russian Antiques

As an antique investor, I’m constantly on the lookout for the next big thing.  Well, I think I’ve found it.  I’ve already written an article about investing like the Russian Gokhran.  But if that doesn’t interest you, maybe you should invest like a Russian Czar instead!

Imperial Russian antiques are tangible reminders of a glorious, but doomed empire that had a population of 170 million subjects and covered almost 1/6 of the world’s landmass.  Fine antiques from the Russian Empire have always been popular among collectors, but the recent 100th anniversary of the collapse of Czarist Russia has sparked renewed interest.

Pre-revolutionary Russia is a fascinating place and time in human history.  The Russian Empire was headed by the glamorous Romanov Dynasty during this period – a family that has entered into popular mythology over the past century.  The personal triumphs and tragedies of the Russian royal family have been recounted countless times in books, movies and television since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1917.

The history of the Romanovs reads like a fiction novel.  The dynasty first came to power in 1613, after the tumultuous Time of Troubles – a period in Russian history punctuated by famine, political infighting and foreign invasion.  However, the establishment of the Romanov bloodline put an end to this chaos, ushering in their 300 year reign as the nation’s autocratic rulers.

The Romanov Dynasty ruled over a Russia that was still largely medieval in its administration and outlook, even into the 19th century. For instance, the Russian Empire only emancipated its serfs (peasants tied to land owned by the aristocracy) in 1861.  Unlike Great Britain and other Western European nations, Russia’s aristocracy lacked the counterbalance of a rich and powerful industrial or mercantile elite.  As a result, the aristocracy’s power was only effectively checked by the authority of the Czar and his administrators.

The end of the Russian Empire is all too familiar to students of history.  Imperial institutions, while originally dynamic and vital, gradually became ossified and ineffective over the centuries.  The Romanov monarchs systematically resisted any attempt to meaningfully curb their power or reform the government.  The Russian State Duma, a rudimentary parliament of sorts, was belatedly established in 1905.  But the Russian old guard could not abide sharing power, rendering it a token institution.

World War I was the final nail in the coffin for the vast, but teetering empire.  Widespread food shortages and a series of military setbacks strained the Russian people to their breaking point.  The Romanovs sat secluded and unaware in their lavish palaces while political and social chaos swirled around them.  Finally, the last Czar, Nicholas II, was forced to abdicate on March 15, 1917.

For anyone interested in investing in Imperial Russian antiques, I have good news.  There is a multitude of aesthetically pleasing objets d’art for the savvy connoisseur to choose from, many of them rendered in gold, silver and precious gemstones.  And while prices are usually somewhat higher than for comparable antiques from Western Europe, given the Russian Empire’s romance and history, they are well worth the cost.

The first Imperial Russian antiques I want to showcase are Czarist era silver and gold coins.  The Russian Empire’s main currency unit was the rouble, with kopeks acting as the equivalent of cents.  Denominations from the tiny 5 kopek coin to the substantial 1 rouble coin were all struck in silver.  Gold coins were struck in 3 rouble, 5 rouble, 7.5 rouble, 10 rouble and 15 rouble denominations.

These attractive coins feature the head of the reigning Czar on the obverse and the iconic double-headed Romanov eagle on the reverse.  Alternatively, some coins have the denomination surrounded by a legend or wreath in place of the Czar’s bust.

If you are interested in collecting these compelling Imperial Russian antiques, I suggest that you stick to the higher denomination silver coins or the gold coins.  The larger silver coins like the half-rouble and rouble are impressive mementos of Czarist Russia and are the most likely (among the silver coins) to appreciate in value.  Any Imperial Russian gold coins are highly desirable and there is always strong demand in the market for these covetable pieces.

Imperial Russia even struck platinum coins for a brief period from the late 1820s to the mid 1840s.  These unusual pieces were the only platinum coins ever intended for general circulation in history.  Unfortunately, they were not popular with the Russian people, who were not familiar with platinum as a precious metal.  As a result, few of these platinum coins were minted and they are very scarce and expensive today.

One caveat when buying high value Imperial Russian coins is to watch out for fakes.  Because they are in perpetual demand, a significant number of counterfeit specimens have been produced over the decades.  In order to avoid this pitfall, I strongly recommend that any Czarist Russian coin you consider purchasing with a value of more than $100 be certified by a third-party grading service, either NGC or PCGS.  This advice applies doubly for gold and platinum pieces, which are the most often counterfeited.

Jewelry is another category of Imperial Russian antiques that is well loved by collectors and investors alike.  Even though it was heavily influenced by contemporary Victorian and Edwardian stylistic trends, Czarist jewelry has a uniquely Russian look.

For example, Imperial Russian jewelry often incorporates native Russian gemstones from the Urals or Siberia.  This includes fabled gems such as green demantoid garnet, reddish-purple Siberian amethyst, glowing Baltic amber and vibrant nephrite jade.

Imperial Russian jewelry also often employs fantastic enamel-work, especially guilloche enamel.  This is the translucent, luminous enamel that the renowned Faberge workshops were famous for.  Cloisonné enamel – opaque enamel where different colors are partitioned by thin metal strips – was also a specialty of 19th and early 20th century Russian jewelers.

Like most Imperial Russian antiques, Czarist jewelry is in very high demand.  This has driven prices up considerably over the last few decades.  At this point, it is difficult to find anything worthwhile for less than about $1,000.  And the sky’s the limit on the high-end of pre-revolution Russian jewelry.

Any overview of Imperial Russian antiques would be incomplete without mentioning Czarist silverware.  It is some of the most beautiful antique silver produced in pre-World War I Europe.  A fine silver flatware or tea set was de rigueur for any respectable pre-revolutionary Russian noble family.

Antique Russian silver is normally found in two different finenesses: 84 zolotniks and 88 zolotniks.  The zolotnik fineness standard originated in medieval Russia and was gradually phased out after the Russian revolution.  96 zolotniks is pure silver, meaning 84 zolotniks is equivalent to .875 fine silver while 88 zolotniks is .917 fine silver.  Occasionally high end antique Russian silver was made from 91 zolotnik silver, which is 94.8% fine – purer than sterling silver.

Imperial Russian silver often relies on a handful of characteristic silversmithing techniques.  The first of these is bright-cut engraving, where a design or scene is shallowly cut into the otherwise plain surface of a silver object.  The second technique commonly encountered is cloisonné enamel, something Imperial Russian silver has in common with Czarist jewelry.  Finally, niello, a blackened alloy of sulfur, silver, copper and lead, was often inlaid into antique Russian silver as a contrasting decorative element.

Czarist era Russian silver is highly desirable and almost always sells for a premium versus other antique Continental European silver.  Very little good material can be found for less than around $200.  Nonetheless, pre-revolution Russian silver represents a superlative way to invest in Imperial Russian antiques.

Czarist Russia represents a lost, almost legendary, way of life in which nobility and royalty lived carefree lives of sumptuous excess while factory workers, peasants and soldiers wrestled with the drudgery of everyday life.  We might not have wanted to live there ourselves, but it sure is amazing to be able to peek inside their world.  Luckily, Imperial Russian antiques give you that rare (and lucrative) opportunity.

 

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Total U.S. Securities Outstanding and the Coming Bubble Reversal

Total U.S. Securities Outstanding and the Coming Bubble Reversal

I have a confession to make.  I am a big fan of Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin.  His weekly macroeconomic blog astutely details the evolving monstrosity that is our Frankenstein bubble economy.

In one of his recent posts, Mr. Noland dissected the Federal Reserve’s Q4 2017 Z.1 Flow of Funds report.  What I found particularly fascinating was the way he compared historical total U.S. securities outstanding to total U.S. GDP.  I will quote him below:

Total (Debt and Equities) Securities ended 2017 at a record $88.651 TN.  Total Securities surged to a record 449% of GDP, up from 429% to conclude 2016.  For perspective, Total Securities to GDP peaked at 379% ($55.3TN) during Q3 2007 and 359% ($36.0TN) at cycle highs in Q1 2000.  Total Securities as a percent of GDP ended 1970 at 148%, 1975 at 122%, 1980 at 128%, 1985 at 155%, 1990 at 189%, and 1995 at 262%.

His analysis was so intriguing that I resolved to independently replicate the data using Federal Reserve data.  You can see the fruits of my labor in the chart above.

It shows the combined market value of all U.S. securities outstanding (both debt and equity, which are also broken-out separately) charted as a percentage of U.S. GDP since 1951.  If you want to know why I believe we are currently living through the largest bubble the world has ever known, well, this is it.

All the data for this chart comes directly from the Fed.  It uses the L.208 Debt Securities table and the L.223 Corporate Equities table from the Fed’s Z.1 report, in addition to GDP values from the FRED database.

The implications of the excessive amount of U.S. securities outstanding should be terrifying to every investor, saver and entrepreneur out there.  It indicates that combined U.S. debt and equity assets have to take a 66% haircut to get back to pre-1990s “normal” levels of 150% of GDP.  Even if you assume that a permanently elevated level at 200% of GDP is warranted, anything less than a 50% across the board loss is unrealistic.

 

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Not only does the U.S. securities outstanding chart clearly show prior bubble peaks, but it also shows the reasoning behind why they are bubbles.  All securities ultimately “pay-out” via GDP.  When you sell a security to fund your retirement or buy a new car, you are, in effect, exchanging that stock or bond for current goods and services – in other words, GDP.

Because of this, it is reasonable to assume that an economy can only support a certain level of aggregate security value in relation to GDP.  Situations like we have today, where we are clearly above that level, do not spell imminent economic doom of course.  But it does make for a very unstable financial system.

The situation is a lot like an old-fashioned bank run.  As long as no one tries to exchange their overvalued securities for real goods and services, everything appears to be fine.  But this is an illusion – the calm before the storm.

In reality, the economy can’t cover all the claims against it.  The ultimate winners are the first people to exchange their overvalued securities for real goods and services (or something else that will hold its value, like tangible assets).

Everybody who tries to cash out later will find that there is little or nothing left for them.  These are the losers in our scenario.  Can you imagine what it will look like if almost every 401-k, IRA and brokerage account across the country takes a 50% to 70% loss within a few short years?  This is exactly what could happen when our present bubble eventually bursts.

This is why I advocate investing in hard assets, such as fine art, antiques and precious metals.  These underappreciated assets haven’t experienced the same ruinous bubble dynamics that paper assets like stocks and bonds have.  As a result, tangible assets should hold their value admirably in the coming bubble reversal.

 

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Fine Art and Antiques – The Last of the Debt Free Assets

Fine Art and Antiques - The Last of the Debt Free Assets

A common nugget of modern-day investing wisdom is that investors should exclusively buy solid, dividend paying companies and then sit back and relax.  According to this thinking, purchasing dividend paying stocks that have been around for many decades ensures that the holder will receive a fair return on his money.

Every time I hear this advice dispensed (which is a lot), I quietly wonder to myself what exactly makes a company “solid”.  Many people conflate companies that have been paying dividends for many years with the idea of corporate solidity.  Nowhere is this idea more evident than with the so-called Dividend Aristocrats – S&P 500 firms that have raised their dividends for the last 25 years in a row or longer.

Of course, this glib analysis often mistakes historical happenstance for solid fundamentals.  As an example, I think it is instructive to take a look at what happened to an entire cohort of Dividend Aristocrats during the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Of the 59 companies that were members of this elite group of “solid” companies heading into the financial crisis, only 36 remained five years later.  Those 23 Dividend Aristocrat dropouts represent a harrowing 40% failure rate.

And the reason all of those once venerable companies came crashing down to earth can be summed up in one word – debt!  A large number of the fallen Dividend Aristocrats were financial firms that were absolutely drowning in debt.  Most of the rest that cut their dividends also had excessive debt.

Unfortunately for investors, the problem of excessive corporate debt isn’t exclusive to financial companies or dividend aristocrats.  Household-names such as Coca-Cola, IBM, Home Depot and Verizon are all significantly over-levered at the moment.  And while corporate leverage has done wonders for the earnings and share price of these companies over the last few years, it is certain to hobble them when the next financial downturn arrives.

So buying “solid, dividend paying” stocks seems like sheer insanity to me, if for no other reason than that there are basically no good companies left to buy.  Over the past decade of ultra-low interest rates, corporate management simply couldn’t resist the temptation to borrow gobs of money in order to buy back shares and make ill-advised acquisitions.

As a result, many of today’s seemingly stalwart companies will undoubtedly hit the wall in another financial crisis, perhaps even a mild one.

Regrettably, many asset classes other than stocks also suffer from debt-related issues.  Real estate, for example, is usually purchased via a mortgage.  That leaves almost all commercial, residential and industrial real estate heavily levered, which puts it at considerable risk in the case of an economic downturn.  In such a situation, it would be foolhardy to expect real estate prices to maintain their currently elevated levels.

Even bonds and other fixed income instruments are weakened by the oversaturation of debt in the economy.  When debt levels are low, the chances that a company will be able to make good on its bond obligations are high.  But when debt levels are out of control, like they are at the present, it dramatically increases the possibility that corporate default will be the only viable solution.

So if stocks, bonds and real estate are all destined for a painful future, what kind of assets do we want to invest in?  Well, in my opinion, we want debt free assets.  These are assets that have no debt liability in their financial structure (so stocks and bonds are largely out).  It also excludes assets that are primarily purchased via debt financing (like real estate).

Once you start looking for debt free assets you will quickly discover that there are very few out there, which makes them all the more desirable.  The largest category of debt free assets, as far as I can tell, is tangible assets, like precious metals, fine art and antiques.  These assets have been used as a store of wealth by the rich and privileged for thousands of years, ensuring capital preservation across countless generations.

These perennially overlooked hard assets sit completely outside the mainstream financial system.  As a result, they have not been sliced and diced by Wall Street the way so many other formerly staid investments have been.

This is a good thing, by the way.  It means that these debt free assets have avoided the unholy machinations of Ivy League MBAs, hedge fund con men and other Wall Street operators.

It also means that you can pick up desirable vintage fountain pens for just $200.  Or you can buy genuine World War II era U.S. military insignia for only $75.  Or you can purchase an award-winning, hand-made woodblock print for a very reasonable $250.

Of course, if antiques and fine art don’t impress you, you can always make an investment in the oldest and most recognized of debt free assets – precious metal bullion.  Gold bullion coins like American Eagles, American Buffalos, Canadian Maples Leafs and Australian Kangaroos are all great choices.  Silver bullion coins such as American Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs, Chinese Pandas and Australian Kookaburras work for investors who want to spend less money.  Even platinum coins and bullion bars are readily available for those with more exotic tastes.

Whatever debt free assets you choose to buy, be secure in the knowledge that they can never default, go into receivership or be cancelled.  When you buy debt free assets, they are yours forever, until you sell them at a time and place of your choosing.  And in today’s world of over-levered corporate behemoths, that insight is priceless.

 

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Declining U.S. Dollar Hegemony and its Investment Implications

Declining U.S. Dollar Hegemony and its Investment Implications

The U.S. dollar is currently the world’s undisputed world reserve currency.  It is estimated that the global share of foreign exchange reserves kept in U.S. dollars has been consistently hovering around 64% for several years.  This is extraordinary, considering that the U.S. economy only constitutes about 25% of global GDP.

One side effect of U.S. dollar hegemony is that greenbacks are accepted in exchange for goods and services all over the world.  Couple this with the United State’s history of low inflation and strong economic growth and it is easy to see why the dollar became the de facto global reserve currency in the post World War II era.

In fact, in some countries U.S. dollars are considered far superior to the prevailing local currency.  Average people in countries as diverse as Argentina, Venezuela, Vietnam, Greece, Zimbabwe, Egypt and Nigeria all hoard U.S. dollars in an effort to preserve the purchasing power of their savings.  It is much better to have a wad of $100 bills stashed under the mattress, rather than a pile of rapidly devaluing Argentinean pesos, Venezuelan bolivares, or Egyptian pounds.

But U.S. dollar hegemony has also conferred what the French Minister of Finance, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, referred to in the 1960s as America’s “exorbitant privilege“.  This is the ability of the country that issues the global reserve currency to run persistent current account deficits, allowing it to consume resources far in excess of those that it produces.

U.S. dollar hegemony has manifested itself in some surprising ways.  For example, in 2016 it is estimated that the United States consumed 7,230 metric tons of silver, or more than 26% of global mine production.  This is all the more shocking when one realizes that the population of the United States is only 4.3% of the world’s population.

A similar story unfolds for other luxury goods.  U.S. diamond demand is estimated to be over 35% of the global pie.  U.S. platinum demand is around 17.5% of global mine supply.  I could not find data on colored gemstones, but you can bet that the trend is the same.  With the exception of silver, the United States is not a significant producer of any of these materials – only a major consumer.

Gold is one of the few luxury raw materials where the U.S. does not take the lion’s share of global production.  It only consumes about 193 metric tons of gold per annum – a mere 6% of total mine supply.  But the U.S. is still the 3rd largest consumer of gold in the world.  It is only surpassed by China and India, two nations that are absolutely obsessed with gold.

All of these statistics paint an alarming picture, especially considering that the global supply of luxury raw materials is slowly drying up.  A world where the U.S. buys whatever it wants, regardless of its industrial production or GDP, does not seem like a very sustainable economic system.  And when we examine U.S. dollar hegemony closely, we see the first signs of cracks beginning to appear.

After the 2018 tax cuts passed under the Trump administration, the United State’s budget deficit is projected to balloon to $1 trillion.  That is disquieting enough by itself, but it doesn’t even contemplate the possibility of a recession or other systematic economic problem.  If the U.S. does enter a recession, you can expect the budget deficit to rapidly inflate to a staggering $2 trillion.

Of course, I’m not a hyperinflation alarmist.  Even these stupendously large deficits will not end U.S. dollar hegemony by themselves.  But they might just signal a shift towards the eventual unraveling of our current economic system.

One way or another, the United States will one day no longer be able to grab an outsized portion of the earth’s bounty.  A single country laying claim to 1/4 of the world’s silver or 1/3 of the world’s diamonds is patently ridiculous.  It cannot continue and will not continue, even if the exact timing and mechanism by which U.S. dollar hegemony will unwind is unknown.

Even now, the world’s sole superpower status is being challenged by China.  India is also on the horizon as an eventual economic competitor.  Either the U.S. dollar is destined to fall in value or competing currencies will strengthen considerably.

Of course, the gradual decline of U.S. dollar hegemony begs a very simple question.  If the rest of the world saves in U.S. dollars, then what should U.S. citizens save in?  I will give you a hint here.  The answer isn’t dollars.

Instead, I believe that it would be wise to invest in tangible assets, such as fine art, antiques, gemstones and bullion.  These hard assets will help preserve and grow the purchasing power of your money during market crashes, currency crises and other major economic dislocations that are sure to come.  This is especially important as the global financial system evolves and the United States inevitably loses its exorbitant privilege.

Perhaps most importantly, holders of U.S. dollars still have access to cheap hard assets today.  People like you and I should take advantage of this fleeting strong dollar opportunity to add tangible investments to our portfolios while we can.  Although U.S. dollar hegemony is clearly in decline, investing in fine art, antiques and bullion can help you avoid the worst fallout from the changing of the economic guard.

 

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