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Intrinsic Value and Antiques

Intrinsic Value and Antiques

Intrinsic value is a somewhat controversial topic in the investing world.  For example, I have read a surprising number of investment articles that offhandedly claim that “gold has no intrinsic value.”  I’ve found this viewpoint to be rather odd.  After all, if gold has no intrinsic value, then what in the world does?  Dictionary.com defines the word intrinsic as “belonging to a thing by its very nature.”  This isn’t a bad starting point, but isn’t perhaps as self explanatory as we would prefer it to be.  In any case, what follows are my musings on the meaning of intrinsic value and how it specifically applies to the art and antiques market.

In my opinion, intrinsic value always applies to raw materials that can be recycled or reused.  Metals most obviously fall into this category.  A copper pipe can easily be melted down and fabricated into copper wire or copper roof trim.  But other materials can be reused too, although none can be recycled with as much ease or as little waste as metals.  Wood, for example, can often be salvaged from its original application and, with some processing, be repurposed into flooring, furniture, structural members or any number of other applications.  In fact, there is a thriving industry in reclaiming and reusing old wooden structures like barns or log homes.  Precious stones, too, can be recycled.  In medieval times it was common for a gem to be pried out its original setting and then remounted.  Sometimes the same gem would effortlessly and inevitably don a new, stylistically current setting every century or so, for hundreds of years in a row.  And high quality gems are largely treated the same way today, their settings changing regularly with the whims of fashion.

However, just the mere fact that a material can be recycled does not truly confer intrinsic value in my opinion – at least not when talking about antiques.  For example, both glass and paper can be recycled, but no one really thinks of these materials as possessing intrinsic value.  I think that when talking about antiques there is a minimum monetary value that a recyclable material must attain before it can meaningfully have intrinsic value.  I believe this value – admittedly arbitrarily set – is approximately $1 per pound or $2 per kilogram.  Setting the minimum value bar here grants intrinsic value to the artistically important copper alloys while excluding iron, aluminum, lead and other, more plebeian metals.

So materials in the art world that possess intrinsic value can be broken down into three broad categories.  Please note that the lists of materials I’m going to give here are obviously abbreviated and are not complete or exhaustive in any way.  First are the metals: platinum, gold, silver and the copper alloys.  Then there are gemstones like ruby, emerald, tourmaline, garnet, etc. and decorative stones like jade, agate, malachite and lapis lazuli.  Lastly, I would include fine woods like mahogany, teak, rosewood, walnut and cherry.

When applied to the world of art and antiques, we find that some items naturally have a very high intrinsic value – like a platinum and diamond tiara – while others have little intrinsic value – like a bronze sculpture – and yet others have no intrinsic value at all – like a painting.  Now art or antiques do not have to possess intrinsic value in order to be desirable.  But, by the same token, art often employs the finest materials at hand and these are often blessed with intrinsic value.  All else being equal, a work of art rendered in an intrinsically valuable substance should be more desirable – and hence worth more – than that same work rendered in a common material.  And this should even be the case when prices are adjusted for the market value of the intrinsically valuable material used.

So a sculpture cast in solid gold should be innately more appealing to most collectors that the same sculpture cast in bronze, even if their artistry and workmanship are equal.  The price difference between these twin sculptures of gold and bronze should be more than just the difference between the melt value of their respective metals.  In other words, there should be a premium applied to the price of a work of art or antique produced from intrinsically valuable materials.  Now the size of that premium is very much up for debate.  But regardless of whether you are a connoisseur or an investor, it is prudent to spend some time thinking about intrinsic value and how it potentially impacts your art and antique purchases.

The Investment Advantage of Seasoned Antiques

The Investment Advantage of Seasoned Antiques

When I was young I used to play an unusual game at my grandparent’s house.  They lived in a stately, old, brick Victorian built in 1912 that was stuffed full of antiques.  I used to go into a room at random and imagine myself going back in time.  My first stop was the year 1950.  Now I would ask myself what items made after 1950 would disappear from the room and what items made before 1950 would remain?  Now, still standing in the same room, I would imagine that I had gone back even further in time to 1900.  What would be left in the room and what would disappear?  I would repeat this process until I had mentally time traveled back to the early 19th century.

This odd little game actually gives surprisingly deep insights into the natural process of physical attrition and how it relates to the antique industry.  Even in my grandparent’s house, which was packed full of antiques of all types and descriptions, the Civil War era (circa 1865) was a watershed.  My grandparents owned many, many post 1860s antiques.  But, if you were to go back in time before 1865, the number of surviving items in a given room dwindled to just a handful.  For example, there may only be a single piece of furniture, a simple stoneware jug and perhaps a pressed glass bowl – all of them pre Civil War era.  Everything else in the room would be post 1865.

These childhood observations have wider implications for the world of antiques.  While items from before the 1860s are truly scarce, even surviving late-Victorian, post-1860s antiques aren’t particularly common.  Time has done its wicked work all too well, scouring the world until only a fragment of our material heritage remains.  This process – the natural attrition of poorly made or low quality objects over time – is known as seasoning.  It strips away the faddish and the banal, leaving only the exceptional and enduring.  And as we move forward in the 21st century, it is increasingly apparent that early and mid 20th century items are also gradually but inexorably being winnowed by this never ending phenomenon.

All of these experiences lead to some important conclusions for antique investors and collectors alike.  Seasoning only happens slowly, over decades and decades of time.  A substantial amount occurs over the first 50 years of an object’s existence.  This amount of time more or less coincides with the definition of antique, meaning anything considered antique has already been seasoned to some extent.  After the first half century, seasoning progresses more slowly until the process is largely complete around 150 or 200 years.  So today, when we examine mid 19th century or earlier antiques, only the best of the best has survived.  Medieval and ancient items, having been seasoned for either hundreds or thousands of years, are rarer yet.  Shockingly few items survive from those periods – almost all of them remarkably durable.

One reason that antiques are often superior investments is precisely because they have been seasoned over almost unimaginable lengths of time.  Inferior items produced from subpar materials like cardboard, cheap base metals and low-quality woods or fabrics have tended to disappear over time.  These “bad” antiques – those that are cheaply-made, nondescript or stylistically average – have a smaller and smaller chance of avoiding the garbage heap as the decades wear on.  Families throw them out when they move or when older family members die.  Or they are destroyed in tragic natural disasters such as fires, floods and tornadoes.  Or they simply rust, mold or turn to dust from age and exposure.

So have confidence when you begin collecting fine antiques with an eye toward investments returns.  Whether perusing 18th century French bronze candelabra or ancient Minoan sealstones, only the finest specimens have survived the destructive effects of centuries of time.  The world will never have more antiques, only less from now until eternity.  This means that when you do buy a fine, century old antique, chances are very good that it will continue to reliably appreciate far into the future.

Investment Grade Antiques Diverge from the Collectibles Market

Investment Grade Antiques Diverge from the Collectibles Market

The antique market has undergone massive changes recently.  These developments have altered the antiques marketplace in one important way that few experts, much less casual observers, are aware of.  While high end, investment grade antiques have soared in value over the last 10 to 15 years, non-investment grade antiques – what I refer to as collectibles – have crashed.

This pricing revolution became starkly apparent to me as I was doing in-depth pricing research for guides I was writing.  I saw the same pattern again and again.  Investment grade antiques – high end coins, jewelry, silverware, mechanical watches, illuminated manuscripts, etc. – generally cost two to three times what they did a decade ago.  Sometimes they cost four times as much.  Very rarely, the increase was a bit less than two times.  These price increases were across the board, but only for antiques that fell into the investment grade category.  In other words, only those antiques that are portable, high quality, durable, scarce and reflect the zeitgeist of their era benefited.

The situation hasn’t gone nearly as well for the rest of the antiques market, however.  The price of more pedestrian collectibles – most memorabilia, ceramic figurines, antique furniture, glass, china and crystal – has plummeted since the turn of the millennium.  Markets that used to be vibrant for these antiques have collapsed in value by anywhere from 25% to 80%.  And the trend doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon.  The demand collectibles formerly enjoyed is simply no longer there.

As interesting as this bifurcation in the antiques market is, I find the reasons why the split has occurred even more intriguing.  If we can understand why it is happening, we have a chance to reasonably predict future demand and relative price movements.  There are several interconnected reasons why the collectibles market has weakened while the investment grade antiques market has simultaneously appreciated.

The aging of the acquisition-oriented Baby Boomers is first and foremost on the list of trends that has tanked the collectibles market.  Around the year 2000 the Baby Boomers were in their late 30s to mid 50s.  This was their prime collecting age, when they stuffed their newly built McMansions full of every conceivable antique and collectible.  But now that the Baby Boomers are aging into their 60s and 70s they have slowly changed from net buyers of collectibles to net sellers.

The Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 also brought profound, irreversible changes to the antiques market.  Before the crisis, many people spent a significant portion of their discretionary income on collectibles.  After the crisis this extra income – and by extension a great deal of collectible demand – has evaporated.

The trend towards young people living in condos, apartments, townhouses or other, smaller homes has meant there is less room for knick-knacks and shelf sitters among the younger demographic.  It has also resulted in younger generations highly valuing portability.  Many of today’s Millennials live semi-nomadic lifestyles, changing apartments often and even moving across the country for job opportunities.  Because of this, antiques that are durable, small and easily transported have a tremendous edge over ponderous, fragile furniture, china and other unwieldy collectibles that grandma may have favored.

Another important factor in the escalating prices of investment grade antiques is the price of bullion.  Gold, silver and platinum have all increased sharply in value since the early 2000s.  Any antiques containing significant amounts of precious metals have, consequently, seen their value rise, as well.  This trend applies to other fine raw materials, too.  For example, fine gemstones and exotic woods have also increased in price over the last couple decades, indirectly driving up prices for antiques that incorporate them.

Finally, many younger people, having grown up in the Age of Wal-Mart, have developed an aversion to mass produced junk.  Instead they recognize and strive to own fewer, but higher quality items.  Investment grade antiques, with their old world workmanship, individuality and scarcity, effortlessly fit these requirements.

None of these trends are likely to end anytime soon.  Therefore, I think we can expect more of the same.  High quality, investment grade antiques will continue their brisk appreciation while more common collectibles will remain stagnant at best.

Investment Grade Antiques Have Always Been Expensive, Even When New

Investment Grade Antiques Have Always Been Expensive, Even When New

A common misconception surrounding antiques is that items that were originally cheap or commonplace decades ago can somehow age into choice, investment grade art today.  In this fantasy, junk collectibles gradually improve with age – not unlike a fine wine – until, if you hold them long enough, they finally become incredibly valuable.  Occasionally there are stories in the media that reinforce this idea.  For example, a million dollar treasure trove of old, rare baseball cards – including Ty Cobb, Cy Young and Honus Wagner cards – was found in the attic of an old farmhouse in Defiance, Ohio in 2012.

With sensational stories like this it is no wonder that many people believe their grandparent’s knick-knacks and junk could be worth a fortune.  After all, vintage baseball cards were free, throw-away prizes for buying candy or tobacco products in the early 20th century.  They were made from cheap cardboard, one of the most fragile and least durable materials on earth.  Doesn’t this definitively prove that an antique can go from zero to hero – in terms of desirability and monetary value – if stashed in an attic long enough?

Disappointingly for many people, the answer is an emphatic “No!”  That particular story of old, valuable baseball cards is very much the exception and not the rule in investment grade antiques.  Instead, the theme that we see repeated again and again is that today’s investment grade antiques were almost always extremely expensive when they were new.  And if you stop to think about it, this makes a great deal of sense.

Two of the attributes that are highly valued in fine antiques are durability and quality materials.  These two characteristics are inexorably intertwined.  When an item is crafted from high quality materials it is almost always durable.  The inverse is also true.  When an item is durable, it is almost always constructed from high quality materials.  However, only very skilled craftsmen or artists tend to work with these substances.  For one thing, good materials are very expensive.  They also require great proficiency to mold properly with minimal wastage.  Additionally, no true artist wishes to bequeath the world a poorly executed or shoddy work of art composed of fine materials.

A consequence of this is that good quality items – the sorts of things that later become investment grade antiques – were naturally very expensive.  Ancient and medieval coinage is a perfect illustration of this.  Gold coins have always traditionally been made with the greatest of care while bronze coins were hastily and crudely struck.  This was nearly universally true in pre-modern times, regardless of culture or era.  Civilizations as diverse as ancient Rome, medieval Germany and 17th century Mughal India all followed this unwritten rule of coinage.  Gold coins always had face-values significantly higher than their bronze counterparts and were thus substantially more expensive – both straight from the mint and among collectors today.  It is only with the advent of modern minting technology in the 19th century that all coins have been struck to similarly high standards, regardless of their metal composition.

Antique Japanese lacquerware offers another good example of this phenomenon.  In the 19th century Edo and Meiji periods, only the wealthy could afford finely adorned lacquerware dishes and boxes.  Today, these very same high-end pieces, resplendent with maki-e (gold) and raden (mother of pearl inlay) decoration, are the best of the best of investment grade antique Japanese lacquerware.  Very plain lacquerware, in contrast, was much cheaper to make and destined for those who were lower on the socio-economic totem pole.  In the current age, this undecorated Japanese lacquerware isn’t nearly as desirable.

This pattern repeats endlessly, regardless of whether we look at Tiffany jewelry, Gorham silver flatware, Patek Philippe pocket watches or medieval French illuminated manuscripts.  Items that are desirable, investment grade antiques today tended to be expensive – oftentimes very expensive – items when they were new.  So keep this little bit of wisdom in mind next time you’re convinced you will strike it rich by digging through your relatives’ old junk heap.