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Illiquidity: The Unlikely Ally of the Art Collector

Illiquidity - The Unlikely Ally of the Art Collector

Most investors in today’s asset markets consider liquidity to be an unmitigated boon. Liquidity is the ability to easily buy – and more importantly sell – an asset close to its market value quickly. Most stocks are very liquid, with bid-ask spreads of just a few pennies or less.

Even bonds, a traditionally less liquid asset class, have become considerably more liquid via the widespread adoption of fixed-income focused exchange traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds. But there are some unexpected drawbacks to investing in these traditional liquid assets.

Highly liquid asset classes have become a haven for rampant speculation in recent years. Co-located, high frequency trading computer algorithms deftly walk equity markets up and down constantly, scalping just a few pennies from every trade you (or your mutual funds) make. Day-traders, swing-traders and hedge funds complete the speculative encirclement, ensuring that it is nearly impossible for the average person to buy or sell most conventional asset classes without paying the frenzied gamblers their pound of flesh.

Art and antiques, however, are very different financial instruments. They are – in stark contrast to stocks and bonds – highly illiquid. Normally we would consider this to be a wholly negative attribute. And it can be under some circumstances. For example, if you must sell your art collection quickly it will usually only happen at a significant discount to the current market value. But, paradoxically, illiquidity also brings with it some unforeseen and very valuable benefits.

First, illiquidity ensures that speculation – and by extension mispricing – of art and antiques is kept to a bare minimum. The prices you see in the market are therefore real prices, having been established by connoisseurs, dealers, hobbyists and the rare, canny investor. In other words, prices are set by people with a true interest in and deep knowledge of the asset class. Computer algorithms and day traders are blessedly absent from the art market.

Illiquidity also tends to smooth out major market value swings – something wholly foreign to excessively volatile equity markets. This attribute transmutes art and antiques into almost the perfect asset class. If you purchase a piece of fine art at a fair price, the chance of it crashing 30%, 40% or 50% in value over a short period of time is nil. Instead, art tends to compound at a slow and steady rate year after year – oftentimes for decades on end.

While we don’t know what that rate will be, it will almost certainly be steady and, more importantly, consistently positive. Art behaves a little like a bank CD in this sense. It will reliably accumulate value until you decide it is time to sell. Art is an investment that lets you sleep soundly at night.

Perhaps the greatest advantage illiquidity provides the astute investor is in keeping investment competition to a minimum. How many armchair analysts – to say nothing of professional analysts – pour over the financials of companies like GE, Apple, Ford or ExxonMobil every day? Do you really expect to uncover a hidden insight into one of these companies that everyone else has missed?

Art and antiques, however, provide the amateur analyst with abundant opportunities to fully explore a diverse and largely untouched asset class. Hidden gems abound, waiting only for a perceptive connoisseur – or investor – to come and scoop them up.

Liquidity, in isolation, is a positive attribute for an investment to possess. But it is important to understand that it also carries with it a whole host of other, less desirable characteristics. Art and antiques, on the other hand, revel in their illiquidity and all the hidden benefits that entails. The savvy investor will not only dedicate some of his portfolio to traditional stocks and bonds, but also pursue the tremendous return potential embedded in the less liquid art and antiques market. Illiquidity is truly the unlikely ally of the art collector.

The Secret Art Endowments of America’s Colleges and Universities

The Secret Art Endowments of America's Colleges and Universities

As the United States moves forward in the 21st century it is becoming increasingly clear that one of its primary competitive advantages is its superlative system of universities and colleges. They are the envy of foreign nations, attracting wealthy and talented students from all over the world. One of the ways that America’s institutions of higher education are thought leaders is through their unique endowment strategies.

America’s colleges use traditional asset managers to invest the bulk of their endowments, but they also have what I like to call “hidden endowments”. These hidden endowments consist of substantial collections of art or antiques – often accumulated over decades or even centuries – that are almost never included in a university’s publicly acknowledged endowment numbers.

In a very real sense, universities and colleges are on the cutting edge of asset allocation while the traditional asset managers of the world are lagging behind, stuck in a morass of overvalued stocks and bonds.

Let me give you an example. I attended a small, liberal arts college of about 2,200 students in flyover country. This college was academically rigorous and well regarded, with a good regional reputation. My college also had what would be considered a very modest endowment, particularly when compared to Ivy League universities. As part of my academic studies, I had access to two special art endowments that the college had acquired in the early to mid 20th century.

The first was a collection of Czarist-era Russian icons, paintings and miscellaneous objets d’art. This amazing collection was stored at the college president’s house. There was even a silver and lacquer Russian Easter egg attributed to a Faberge workmaster. At the time (the 1990s) the jeweled egg had been appraised at $600. I was incredulous at the ridiculously low valuation on the item and almost offered the president of the college $600 for the treasure right then and there. How much do you think such a work of art might sell for today?

The second collection I had the pleasure of inspecting consisted of antiquities and ancient coins from the Classics department. These pieces exceeded all my expectations. There were numerous cylinder sealstones from ancient Mesopotamia, an outstanding selection of oversized Egyptian Ptolemaic bronze coins, Roman Republic silver denarii, and various other antiquities. These specimens were gathering dust in a couple display cabinets in a corner of the rarely visited Classics building.

These art collections were certainly not the only ones that the college possessed. For example, although I never saw it personally, the college library had a rare book collection that included medieval illuminated manuscripts. Also, while there were only a few dozen pieces in the Russian icon collection, the items had been assigned catalog numbers in the 400s and 500s.

This strongly implies that the college had, at a minimum, over 400 other works of art that it believed merited a catalog number. That, my friend, is a lot of art. I also believe that the antiquities from the Classics collection that I handled were essentially forgotten and most likely not officially cataloged.

In short, my inconsequentially small alma mater – one of a couple thousand non-profit institutions of higher learning in the country – possessed a substantial asset allocation to art and antiques, completely separate from its publicly recognized endowment. And it is undoubtedly not the only college to have methodically squirreled away art, either. It begs the question – what secrets do universities and colleges know about investing that traditional asset managers and the investing public do not?

Cleaning Out Grandma’s House – The 80-20 rule for Antiques

Cleaning Out Grandma's House - The 80-20 Rule for Antiques

Several years ago my grandmother died. One of my duties was to help the family with cleaning out her house. She was 95 years old when she passed and had possessed a lifetime interest in antiques and collectibles. Her spacious, two-story brick Victorian house was absolutely crammed full of old things – too many old things in fact.

My grandmother had been a young adult during the Great Depression and the experience of that traumatic period stayed with her for her entire life. As a result, although she was not a hoarder, she never threw out anything useful. It didn’t matter whether it was a gift, or an item she had picked up at a church bazaar or even something she scavenged from the neighbor’s trash – she kept them all. She even went so far as to clean disposable plastic silverware and carefully sequester it for a future use that happily never came.

So you can imagine how monumental the task of cleaning out her house seemed. And yet, mixed in with the apprehension was also a vague sense of excitement. This was going to be the biggest treasure hunt I had ever participated in. There were hushed whispers among family members of the possible value of the antiques in her estate…$30,000…$40,000…more? No one knew for certain. All we did know is that she had a house crammed full of a lifetime’s worth of antiques, collectibles and stuff.

To make a long story short, while the emotional value of what we found was tremendous, the dollar value was much smaller than expected. The aggregate value of the house’s contents was between $8,000 and $15,000, although that number would have been higher if the economy hadn’t been in the midst of a severe recession. In the aftermath of these developments, an interesting concept related to the Pareto principle became evident.

The Pareto principle, or 80-20 rule, was an idea conceived by Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto in 1896. It states that 80% of an effect originates from 20% of the related inputs. The Pareto principle is often found in business situations where, for example, 80% of a company’s sales might come from 20% of its products.

What does the 80-20 rule have to do with cleaning out my grandmother’s house you ask? Simply put, I discovered that approximately 80% of the monetary value of the contents of my grandmother’s house was concentrated in 20% of the antiques. Only a small proportion of her antiques had significant dollar value.

For example, most of the value came from a few specimens of mid to late 19th century Victorian furniture, the good sterling silverware, a couple pieces of fine jewelry, a single gold coin and perhaps a handful of glass and porcelain pieces. While there was a lot of stuff in the house, most of it had either very limited or no value, other than sentimental.

The loss of a loved one can be an overwhelming event, but liquidating their estate can be a little easier if you understand Pareto’s 80-20 rule. In the case of a random accumulation of antiques it is a pretty safe bet that 80% of the value present will be concentrated in 20% of the items. Concentrate on making sure you understand which 20% of the items have the value and don’t let them slip through your fingers out of ignorance.

This will limit any “value leakage” from the estate. Keep in mind that this 80-20 rule will not apply if the estate consists of an organized collection of antiques, rather than a haphazard accumulation.

The Optionality of Old Gold Coins

The Optionality of Old Gold Coins

Sometimes I’m asked why I buy old gold coins instead of gold bullion bars or modern bullion coins. For me, it all comes down to optionality. Optionality refers to the option-like attribute possessed by certain investments.

A call option, also sometimes called a warrant, is the right – but not the obligation – to purchase an underlying security at a predetermined price (the strike price) until the option’s expiration. Basically, a call option gives the buyer levered exposure to the underlying security via a fixed, upfront investment known as the premium. The premium is the purchase price of the option.

This might seem very esoteric, but I guarantee you that it is one of the most powerful concepts in the investment universe. Optionality is an idea that is regularly underestimated in the financial community – to the continual benefit of long term investors in the know.

Stocks are perhaps one of the best examples of optionality in action. The stock of a company that is not profitable today still has a market value above zero. This is because the stock does not expire (unless the company goes bankrupt), giving the owner a perpetual call option on any future earnings from the underlying company.

Regardless of whether those future earnings occur next year or ten years from now, the fact that the stock holder will benefit from these potential future earnings gives the stock value today. This concept of optionality also applies to some investments other than just stocks – for example, antique gold coins.

Years ago when I still lived in Boston, I used to frequent a coin shop called J.J. Teaparty in the financial district. I would peruse the available offerings – usually a mix of gold bullion and collector’s (numismatic) gold coins. When given the choice, I always bought 19th and early 20th century European fractional gold coins. These were pieces that actually circulated when the world still operated under the gold standard.

I usually paid about $10 over the spot price of gold per coin. Because each gold coin contained about 1/5 of a troy ounce of pure gold, the total premium usually amounted to around $50 per ounce. At the time, gold was trading around $500 a troy ounce. So the premium for these 100 year old coins was usually around 10% of spot gold, versus 2% or 3% for modern bullion.

The obvious question is why would I willingly pay more for the same amount of gold? The answer is because that extra $35 or $40 premium over bullion also bought me a perpetual call option on the potential numismatic value of those fractional European gold coins. Sure, the coins were minted by the million and are still relatively common. That is why the additional premium over straight gold bullion was so low.

But in exchange for such a minuscule amount of extra money, I received an entirely new vector for future returns. European fractional gold coins are sensitive not only to the price of gold, but also to changes in their value to collectors. They are an overlooked investment double play in a world that rarely gives anything away for free.

Another example is a 16th century Persian gold 1/2 mithqal that I’m considering purchasing. The price is $110 and the bullion value is around $76.50. This gives us a premium over bullion value of about 44%.

Now this might seem high at first, but this is no common 20th century coin. This 450 year old gold 1/2 mithqal has wonderfully bold Persian calligraphy and a lot of eye appeal. No, the coin isn’t perfect – as evidenced by its somewhat flat strike. If it didn’t have this defect, it would be a much, much more expensive coin.

In any case, I would happily pay an extra $33.50 over bullion value for a very collectible 16th century Persian gold coin in the hopes that its numismatic value increases in the future. The numismatic optionality of this coin seems like a very good risk-reward ratio to me at the quoted price.

And, as I mentioned before, optionality turbo-charges your potential returns. With the Persian gold coin above, if the numismatic premium on the coin increases from 44% to 100% you experience a return of 39% – all without the price of gold moving one dollar. But if the price of gold doubles and the numismatic premium increase to 100% simultaneously, then the multiplicative effect magnifies your return to 178%!

This is the power of optionality in action. So yes, if given the choice between plain bullion and old gold coins, I will almost always choose the undervalued optionality offered by the latter.