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Are Vintage 1980s Collectibles Investment Worthy Yet?

Are Vintage 1980s Collectibles Investment Worthy Yet?

It’s no secret that the hottest part of the antiques market in recent years has been Mid-Century Modern, with its sleek lines and uncluttered decoration.  And this trend got me thinking.  Are vintage 1980s collectibles – complete with angular aesthetics and luscious neon colors – investable yet?

It is a loaded question.  The 1980s is only about 30 to 40 years ago at this point, so it doesn’t quite reach my personal definition of antique yet.  But although such labels used to be vitally important distinctions in the antiques trade in times past, they hardly matter anymore in the modern era.  What sells, sells, and what doesn’t sell, doesn’t.

I understand and embrace this philosophical flexibility.  I’m interested in identifying items that are destined to reliably appreciate in value in the future, regardless of when they were produced.  In fact, I’m not above recommending contemporary pieces of art or jewelry as investments, provided they are well-executed and priced right.  I call these modern tangible assets “future antiques” because I strongly believe they are destined to age into desirable antiques after a few decades have passed.

But where does this leave vintage 1980s collectibles?  They are on the cusp of becoming antique (just another 10 to 20 years to go), but aren’t quite there yet.  In the end, however, it doesn’t matter.  Regardless of their age, they are on the verge of a massive breakout, both in terms of popularity and price.

Now I want to make it clear that I’m only talking about very select vintage 1980s collectibles, not all of them.  For example, vintage 1980s pop culture items like your Care Bear lunch box or your G.I. Joe motorized battle tank might hold a special place in your heart, but they are highly unlikely to ever be investment grade pieces.  The same goes for 1980s comic books, baseball cards and Alf memorabilia.

This is where the Antique Sage’s 5 rules of investment grade antiques come in handy.  These rules allow the layman to quickly separate common collectibles from high end antiques that will have superior future appreciation potential.

Vintage items that are portable, durable, scarce and high quality inevitably become more desirable over time.  The 5th and final attribute on this list is zeitgeist, or how well an item reflects the stylistic sensibilities of its era.

Because of these requirements, certain types of items – notably those made from precious metals, gemstones and exotic woods – consistently take center stage.  And this rule of thumb holds true when examining vintage 1980s collectibles as well.

For instance, vintage mechanical wristwatches have become increasingly popular over the past 20 years.  But 1980s mechanical wristwatches are still largely overshadowed by their more well-known 1940s, 50s and 60s predecessors.

In the late 1970s to early 1980s, the Swiss-dominated mechanical watch industry suffered a near-death experience.  The volume of mechanical wristwatches sold plummeted worldwide, almost driving the entire industry into bankruptcy.  This event, known as the Quartz Crisis, was due to the introduction of cheap and reliable quartz watches in the mid-to-late 1970s.

One of the little-appreciated side effects of the Quartz Crisis is that high quality (read: non-Swatch) 1980s mechanical watches were produced in much smaller quantities than mechanical wristwatches in earlier decades.  This increased scarcity isn’t readily apparent in the vintage watch marketplace yet, but is bound to reveal itself sooner or later, thus driving up prices.

In addition to increased scarcity, some vintage 1980s wristwatches practically define their era, exuding tremendous zeitgeist.  Two underrated examples are the classic Must De Cartier tank dress watch and the rugged Seiko 6309 diver’s watch.  Better yet, many fine 1980s era mechanical wristwatches are still relatively affordable, with prices of often just a few hundred dollars each.

Vintage 1980s bullion coins are another category of collectible that is rapidly coming into its own.  After a massive run-up in the price of gold and silver during the 1970s, national governments (which had previously shunned the precious metals markets) decided that it was better to profit from widespread public interest in precious metals by striking bullion coins.

The Royal Canadian Mint got things started in 1979 when they first struck the 1 troy ounce gold Maple Leaf coin.  The United States followed a few years later in 1986 with the American Gold Eagle series of bullion coins and its twin, the American Silver Eagle bullion coin.

Great Britain followed up with its Britannia gold bullion coins in 1987, as did Australia with its Gold Nugget series in the same year.  Mexico, a prolific silver producer, minted silver Libertad bullion coins from 1982.  Even China joined the club with its iconic gold Panda coins in 1982.

Now, under most circumstances bullion coins should trade like…well…bullion.  But special proof versions of these vintage 1980s bullion coins are becoming increasingly popular with farsighted collectors because of their beautiful designs, near-perfect execution and substantial intrinsic value.  As an added bonus, proof versions of these vintage bullion coins were never over-issued, unlike 1980s commemorative coins.

I’ve already featured a couple fine vintage 1980s gold coin proof sets in the Spotlight section of my site over the past few months.  One is a 1985 British gold sovereign proof set and the other is a 1987 Australian Gold Nugget proof set.  Although the $3,000 price tag for each set might seem like a deal-breaker at first, it becomes much more palatable when you understand that they each contain around 2 troy ounces of pure gold.  In effect, you are only paying between 10% and 20% over the spot price of gold for these magnificent 1980s coins.

I’ve only covered a couple vintage 1980s investment grade collectibles categories here.  There are many that I’ve omitted due to space and time constraints, such as vintage 1980s fountain pens, jewelry, hand-poured silver bars and art prints, just to name a few.  There is an investment grade 1980s collecting niche for everyone.

Let’s face it.  Vintage 1980s collectibles are on the cusp of being discovered.  Prices for these under-appreciated, retro-chic investments are low today, but I don’t expect this state of affairs to last for long.  Don’t say no one warned you.

 

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High End Materials Matter When Shopping for Art

High End Materials Matter When Shopping for Art

Shopping for art can be an overwhelming experience.  There are a multitude of different styles, mediums and artists to choose from, for starters.  The situation becomes even more complex if you want to buy a work that has the potential to appreciate in value over time.

The old dictum to “buy what you like” is certainly a good rule of thumb for the aspiring art connoisseur.  However, following this art collector’s tenet isn’t sufficient by itself to ensure that you will purchase a piece with appreciation potential.

However, there is one simple trick that can help you to choose artworks with more universal appeal.  You can look for art that is made with high end materials.  I know this might seem like a very basic suggestion – especially if you are a seasoned art collector – but it can be surprisingly powerful.

Let me give you an example.  When I was browsing on Etsy recently, I came across a magnificent contemporary brass and walnut sculpture for under $100.  I immediately fell in love with this sculpture’s unique combination of precise, almost Cubist, angularity and fluid, organic undulations.

But almost just as intriguing to me was the work’s use of high end materials.  This unique contemporary sculpture was handcrafted from a solid piece of Bastogne Walnut that was then placed atop a solid brass base, creating a visually compelling contrast.

Bastogne Walnut is a very interesting hardwood.  It is a hybrid between the Persian (or English) Walnut – a species native to the Balkans and Central Asia – and Claro Walnut – a tree found in California and Oregon.  Bastogne Walnut is also known as Paradox Walnut because it not only grows much faster than either the English or Claro Walnut, but is also denser, stronger and harder than both of them.  This is a very unusual attribute for a hardwood, as there is usually a direct relationship between how slowly a tree grows and the density and strength of its wood.

In addition to having superior physical characteristics to its parent species, Bastogne Walnut is often found with spectacularly figured grain patterns – burl, crotch and curl Bastogne Walnut are all possible.  These can be immensely beautiful pieces of wood when put in the hands of a capable woodworker.

So Bastogne Walnut undoubtedly sits among the pantheon of high end materials.  Perhaps more importantly, the artist who created this contemporary brass and walnut sculpture noted the specific variety of walnut lumber he used for the piece.  I am convinced that this wasn’t by coincidence.

Competent artists do not choose the materials they use haphazardly.  They are very particular about the mediums they work with, often becoming experts at manipulating these materials.  And they consistently choose high end materials because they usually have exceptional physical characteristics or visual effects that can’t be mimicked through less expensive alternatives.

The additional cost of these higher end materials is a secondary consideration for many artists.  Instead, the aesthetics of the artwork come first, which is exactly what we want as art aficionados.

Art collectors would do well to learn from experienced artists.  High end materials matter.

A competent artist will not hesitate to specifically enumerate the different mediums he has used in a work, even if it seems overly technical to the art buying neophyte.  These high end materials can range from premium, 100% acid-free cotton paper to solid 18 karat yellow gold to anything in between.

As a corollary to this rule, I would be reluctant to purchase a work of art where the artist is vague or ambiguous about the materials used.  A real artist will be proud of the mediums he works with, and will take every opportunity to sing their praises.  On the other hand, a less experienced or amateur artist might be tempted to choose lower end materials for a work in order to save money on supplies.

Or worse yet, an inept artist might actually work with materials that he doesn’t know the specifics of.  I believe this is the worst possible outcome, because it is almost a certainty that such an artist will not know the distinct characteristics of the medium he is working with.  This can only lead to a subpar work of art.

So how do we make sure we are buying artwork made from high end materials?  I think the answer is fairly straightforward.  If the artist can’t list the specific types of materials used in a project, it is best to walk the other way.

For instance, the contemporary brass and Bastogne Walnut sculpture I referenced above would be far less intriguing it were nebulously described as a “contemporary metal and wood sculpture”.  A description that lacks material details is a dead giveaway that an artwork is lower quality.

I do think there is a single exception to this maxim of always choosing works made with high end materials.  If an artwork is being sold in the informal secondary market (in other words, not straight from the artist or a knowledgeable art dealer) there is the possibility that the precise mediums used will have been lost or forgotten.  I would exercise great caution in these situations, though.  You would need to successfully analyze a variety of cues to confirm if the piece in question is worthwhile.

 

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Brazilian Rosewood – The Extinction of a Legend

Brazilian Rosewood - The Extinction of a Legend
Photo Credit (CC 2.0 license): Ian Burt

Among the pantheon of renowned hardwoods, few have been as desired, loved and craved as Brazilian rosewood.  This eye-catching tropical hardwood has been used for fine cabinetwork, exquisite furniture and celebrated musical instruments for hundreds of years.  And yet, it is almost a ghost today; the precious wood has been so coveted that it has been nearly logged to extinction.

Brazilian rosewood (scientific name: Dalbergia nigra) goes by a number of trade names, including Bahia rosewood, Rio rosewood, Pianowood and Jacaranda.  But regardless of what it’s called in the woodworking industry, this illustrious timber is always immensely beautiful.

The highly-figured timber has a rich, deep chocolate color with reddish or even purplish overtones.  Its distinctive, black-marbled grain pattern can give it a striking, almost variegated, appearance under certain circumstances.  When worked, Brazilian rosewood, like all true rosewoods, gives off the unmistakable scent of roses – hence its name.

As if its tremendous beauty was not enough, Brazilian rosewood has also been endowed with superb physical characteristics.  The wood has considerably greater hardness and crushing strength than either white oak or rock maple – two temperate hardwoods famed for their strength and toughness.  Rosewood is also remarkably dense, with a specific gravity of 0.84 – just less than that of water.

But Brazilian rosewood’s most outstanding attribute is undoubtedly its legendary acoustic qualities.  This highly resonant wood sports rich, warm tones with unparalleled sustain and clarity.  In fact, many musical professionals consider it the finest tonewood in existence.

As a result, the world’s most famous instrument makers have naturally gravitated towards this most perfect of woods.  Classic guitars such as the Martin Dreadnought, Fender Stratocaster and Gibson Les Paul were all produced from Brazilian rosewood, as were some of the finest Steinway pianos.

 

East Indian Rosewood Lumber for Sale on eBay

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Brazilian rosewood is native to the Atlantic coastal rainforests of Brazil.  And while it does grow in other parts of South America, the eastern Brazilian states of Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Bahia are its preferred environment.  This is where it grows most abundantly and robustly, reaching heights of well over 100 feet (30 meters) with trunk diameters of more than 3 feet (1 meter).  Unfortunately, relentless logging by the timber industry decade after decade has inexorably whittled down its population.

But we can’t lay the blame for the loss of this stately tree exclusively at the feet of conventional loggers.  In addition to its obvious use as a fine cabinetwood, Brazilian rosewood has also been harvested and processed for its essential oils, which were indispensable to the perfume trade.  In fact, when the world’s first designer fragrance, Chanel No5, was launched in 1921, it used Brazilian rosewood oil as one of its primary ingredients.

Loss of habitat has also plagued the ill-fated wonder tree.  Over the course of the 20th century, the rapid growth of the Brazilian megalopolises of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Salvador permanently eliminated much of the coastal rainforest ecosystem it had occupied.  Further inland, slash and burn farming, coupled with industrial-scale cattle ranching, fragmented the rainforest habitat that the tree so loved.  As a result, few of the magnificent rosewood trees that once towered over the Brazilian countryside remain today.

 

Honduran Rosewood Lumber for Sale on eBay

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By the 1950s, timber from Brazilian rosewood was becoming increasingly difficult to source in the commercial quantities required by fine furniture and instrument makers.  By the time the 1960s arrived, the supply situation had become critical.  Most U.S. guitar manufacturers stopped using the tropical hardwood in the late 1960s.  U.S. and European furniture makers quickly followed suit as rosewood timber stockpiles collapsed.  Consequently, vintage Brazilian rosewood guitars and furniture are highly desirable today.

Finally, in 1992 Brazilian rosewood was belatedly added to the CITES international treaty on endangered plants and animals.  Dalbergia nigra is registered in Appendix I of CITES, which lists the most critically endangered species.  Consequently, the wood is subjected to extremely strict international trade controls.  This makes exporting Brazilian rosewood across international borders in any form, finished or raw, effectively illegal without an export permit or re-export certificate.

In many ways, Brazilian rosewood is the spiritual twin of that doomed, but marvelous Caribbean hardwood – Cuban mahogany.  They are both tropical hardwoods with exceptional beauty and physical properties that were driven to near extinction by overzealous loggers, craftsmen and consumers.

However, Brazilian rosewood is not the only rosewood species available to woodworkers.  East Indian rosewood (Dalbergia latifolia), Honduran rosewood (Dalbergia stevensonii), Cocobolo (Dalbergia retusa) and Amazon rosewood (Dalbergia spruceana) are all commercially available woods belonging to the rosewood genus – true rosewoods.  These true rosewoods share very similar tonal and physical characteristics to Brazilian rosewood and are often used as substitutes for the now unobtainable ideal.

 

Cocobolo Lumber for Sale on eBay

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Predictably, after the supply of Brazilian rosewood timber dwindled in the late 1960s, these surrogate rosewood species experienced exceedingly high demand.  Consequently, on January 2, 2017 all rosewood species (other than Dalbergia nigra, which had been added to Appendix I in 1992) were added to Appendix II of the CITES treaty.  Appendix II is less restrictive than Appendix I, but still prevents most international trade in the raw timber of a listed species.

Luckily, any rosewood already inside a country, regardless of whether it is timber or finished product, is perfectly legal to buy, sell and own, provided it is does not cross national borders.  Because East Indian rosewood, Honduran rosewood, Amazon rosewood and Cocobolo were just recently subject to the CITES treaty, there are still considerable stockpiles of these desirable woods available for high end woodworkers.  If you ever wanted a fine rosewood instrument, sculpture or other objet d’art, now is the time to act, before these rare woods disappear forever.

 

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Total U.S. Securities Outstanding and the Coming Bubble Reversal

Total U.S. Securities Outstanding and the Coming Bubble Reversal

I have a confession to make.  I am a big fan of Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin.  His weekly macroeconomic blog astutely details the evolving monstrosity that is our Frankenstein bubble economy.

In one of his recent posts, Mr. Noland dissected the Federal Reserve’s Q4 2017 Z.1 Flow of Funds report.  What I found particularly fascinating was the way he compared historical total U.S. securities outstanding to total U.S. GDP.  I will quote him below:

Total (Debt and Equities) Securities ended 2017 at a record $88.651 TN.  Total Securities surged to a record 449% of GDP, up from 429% to conclude 2016.  For perspective, Total Securities to GDP peaked at 379% ($55.3TN) during Q3 2007 and 359% ($36.0TN) at cycle highs in Q1 2000.  Total Securities as a percent of GDP ended 1970 at 148%, 1975 at 122%, 1980 at 128%, 1985 at 155%, 1990 at 189%, and 1995 at 262%.

His analysis was so intriguing that I resolved to independently replicate the data using Federal Reserve data.  You can see the fruits of my labor in the chart above.

It shows the combined market value of all U.S. securities outstanding (both debt and equity, which are also broken-out separately) charted as a percentage of U.S. GDP since 1951.  If you want to know why I believe we are currently living through the largest bubble the world has ever known, well, this is it.

All the data for this chart comes directly from the Fed.  It uses the L.208 Debt Securities table and the L.223 Corporate Equities table from the Fed’s Z.1 report, in addition to GDP values from the FRED database.

The implications of the excessive amount of U.S. securities outstanding should be terrifying to every investor, saver and entrepreneur out there.  It indicates that combined U.S. debt and equity assets have to take a 66% haircut to get back to pre-1990s “normal” levels of 150% of GDP.  Even if you assume that a permanently elevated level at 200% of GDP is warranted, anything less than a 50% across the board loss is unrealistic.

 

1/4 Troy Ounce Gold Bullion Coins for Sale on eBay

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Not only does the U.S. securities outstanding chart clearly show prior bubble peaks, but it also shows the reasoning behind why they are bubbles.  All securities ultimately “pay-out” via GDP.  When you sell a security to fund your retirement or buy a new car, you are, in effect, exchanging that stock or bond for current goods and services – in other words, GDP.

Because of this, it is reasonable to assume that an economy can only support a certain level of aggregate security value in relation to GDP.  Situations like we have today, where we are clearly above that level, do not spell imminent economic doom of course.  But it does make for a very unstable financial system.

The situation is a lot like an old-fashioned bank run.  As long as no one tries to exchange their overvalued securities for real goods and services, everything appears to be fine.  But this is an illusion – the calm before the storm.

In reality, the economy can’t cover all the claims against it.  The ultimate winners are the first people to exchange their overvalued securities for real goods and services (or something else that will hold its value, like tangible assets).

Everybody who tries to cash out later will find that there is little or nothing left for them.  These are the losers in our scenario.  Can you imagine what it will look like if almost every 401-k, IRA and brokerage account across the country takes a 50% to 70% loss within a few short years?  This is exactly what could happen when our present bubble eventually bursts.

This is why I advocate investing in hard assets, such as fine art, antiques and precious metals.  These underappreciated assets haven’t experienced the same ruinous bubble dynamics that paper assets like stocks and bonds have.  As a result, tangible assets should hold their value admirably in the coming bubble reversal.

 

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