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Are Vintage 1980s Collectibles Investment Worthy Yet?

It’s no secret that the hottest part of the antiques market in recent years has been Mid-Century Modern, with its sleek lines and uncluttered decoration. And this trend got me thinking. Are vintage 1980s collectibles – complete with angular aesthetics and luscious neon colors – investable yet?

It is a loaded question. The 1980s is only about 30 to 40 years ago at this point, so it doesn’t quite reach my personal definition of antique yet. But although such labels used to be vitally important distinctions in the antiques trade in times past, they hardly matter anymore in the modern era. What sells, sells, and what doesn’t sell, doesn’t.

I understand and embrace this philosophical flexibility. I’m interested in identifying items that are destined to reliably appreciate in value in the future, regardless of when they were produced. In fact, I’m not above recommending contemporary pieces of art or jewelry as investments, provided they are well-executed and priced right. I call these modern tangible assets “future antiques” because I strongly believe they are destined to age into desirable antiques after a few decades have passed.

But where does this leave vintage 1980s collectibles? They are on the cusp of becoming antique (just another 10 to 20 years to go), but aren’t quite there yet. In the end, however, it doesn’t matter. Regardless of their age, they are on the verge of a massive breakout, both in terms of popularity and price.

Now I want to make it clear that I’m only talking about very select vintage 1980s collectibles, not all of them. For example, vintage 1980s pop culture items like your Care Bear lunch box or your G.I. Joe motorized battle tank might hold a special place in your heart, but they are highly unlikely to ever be investment grade pieces. The same goes for 1980s comic books, baseball cards and Alf memorabilia.

This is where the Antique Sage’s 5 rules of investment grade antiques come in handy. These rules allow the layman to quickly separate common collectibles from high end antiques that will have superior future appreciation potential.

Vintage items that are portable, durable, scarce and high quality inevitably become more desirable over time. The 5th and final attribute on this list is zeitgeist, or how well an item reflects the stylistic sensibilities of its era.

Because of these requirements, certain types of items – notably those made from precious metals, gemstones and exotic woods – consistently take center stage. And this rule of thumb holds true when examining vintage 1980s collectibles as well.

For instance, vintage mechanical wristwatches have become increasingly popular over the past 20 years. But 1980s mechanical wristwatches are still largely overshadowed by their more well-known 1940s, 50s and 60s predecessors.

In the late 1970s to early 1980s, the Swiss-dominated mechanical watch industry suffered a near-death experience. The volume of mechanical wristwatches sold plummeted worldwide, almost driving the entire industry into bankruptcy. This event, known as the Quartz Crisis, was due to the introduction of cheap and reliable quartz watches in the mid-to-late 1970s.

One of the little-appreciated side effects of the Quartz Crisis is that high quality (read: non-Swatch) 1980s mechanical watches were produced in much smaller quantities than mechanical wristwatches in earlier decades. This increased scarcity isn’t readily apparent in the vintage watch marketplace yet, but is bound to reveal itself sooner or later, thus driving up prices.

In addition to increased scarcity, some vintage 1980s wristwatches practically define their era, exuding tremendous zeitgeist. Two underrated examples are the classic Must De Cartier tank dress watch and the rugged Seiko 6309 diver’s watch. Better yet, many fine 1980s era mechanical wristwatches are still relatively affordable, with prices of often just a few hundred dollars each.

Vintage 1980s bullion coins are another category of collectible that is rapidly coming into its own. After a massive run-up in the price of gold and silver during the 1970s, national governments (which had previously shunned the precious metals markets) decided that it was better to profit from widespread public interest in precious metals by striking bullion coins.

The Royal Canadian Mint got things started in 1979 when they first struck the 1 troy ounce gold Maple Leaf coin. The United States followed a few years later in 1986 with the American Gold Eagle series of bullion coins and its twin, the American Silver Eagle bullion coin.

Great Britain followed up with its Britannia gold bullion coins in 1987, as did Australia with its Gold Nugget series in the same year. Mexico, a prolific silver producer, minted silver Libertad bullion coins from 1982. Even China joined the club with its iconic gold Panda coins in 1982.

Now, under most circumstances bullion coins should trade like…well…bullion. But special proof versions of these vintage 1980s bullion coins are becoming increasingly popular with farsighted collectors because of their beautiful designs, near-perfect execution and substantial intrinsic value. As an added bonus, proof versions of these vintage bullion coins were never over-issued, unlike 1980s commemorative coins.

I’ve already featured a couple fine vintage 1980s gold coin proof sets in the Spotlight section of my site over the past few months. One is a 1985 British gold sovereign proof set and the other is a 1987 Australian Gold Nugget proof set. Although the $3,000 price tag for each set might seem like a deal-breaker at first, it becomes much more palatable when you understand that they each contain around 2 troy ounces of pure gold. In effect, you are only paying between 10% and 20% over the spot price of gold for these magnificent 1980s coins.

I’ve only covered a couple vintage 1980s investment grade collectibles categories here. There are many that I’ve omitted due to space and time constraints, such as vintage 1980s fountain pens, jewelry, hand-poured silver bars and art prints, just to name a few. There is an investment grade 1980s collecting niche for everyone.

Let’s face it. Vintage 1980s collectibles are on the cusp of being discovered. Prices for these under-appreciated, retro-chic investments are low today, but I don’t expect this state of affairs to last for long. Don’t say no one warned you.

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Anime and Manga Fuel Future Demand for Japanese Antiques

Japanese anime and manga – Japanese animation and comics, respectively – have taken the world by storm over the past 20 years. Their beautiful illustrations, compelling storylines and skillful treatment of adult themes have vaulted anime and manga to the forefront of modern culture. This is in stark contrast to Western cartoons and comics, which are widely viewed as being children’s entertainment (although Disney’s recent treatment of the Marvel Universe is beginning to change these perceptions).

Japanese anime and manga had humble origins. Early releases from the 1960s, like Osama Tezuka (Astro Boy) and Mach GoGoGo (Speed Racer), often featured stripped down, bare bones animation that depended heavily on reused frames. But in spite of these tentative beginnings, the genre steadily evolved.

By the 1980s, anime and manga became something that any Japanophile would immediately recognize today. Groundbreaking animated feature films such as the cyberpunk classic Akira, the environmentalist saga Nausicaä of the Valley of the Wind and World War II tragedy Grave of the Fireflies were all produced during this time. Anime and manga had finally come of age as a storytelling medium.

Once Japanese creators cracked the code for great anime and manga, they began to export their product worldwide. And young people around the world quickly embraced the new creative genre with open arms. Anime and manga are now viewed, read, streamed and purchased all over the globe, from ultra-conservative Saudi Arabia to sophisticated France and everywhere in between. At this point, Japanese anime and manga are ubiquitous, with anyone under the age of 35 instantly recognizing their characteristic style.

So at this point you may very well ask the question: What does anime and manga have to do with Japanese antiques?

The answer is simple. Anime and manga have been important vectors for the 21st century export of Japanese traditions, culture and aesthetics to a global audience. While anime and manga span a multitude of different storylines, almost all of them share a common theme – they emphasize Japanese history, Japanese style and Japanese mythology. Anime and manga provide ample opportunity for the absorption of traditional Japanese culture by foreigners.

For example, the Japanese samurai is a mythical, larger than life figure in Japanese culture – the East Asian equivalent of the cowboy in the American West. And, largely due to the influence of anime and manga, samurai are also held in the same esteem abroad. There are innumerable anime and manga that use the samurai and ninja of feudal, pre-modern Japan as a backdrop, including popular titles such as Naruto, Samurai Champloo and Gintama.

There are many Japanese antiques from the time of the Tokugawa Shogunate that would appeal to these anime and manga fans. For instance, exquisitely-crafted, Edo-era Japanese samurai sword guards, or tsuba, are readily available for only a few hundred dollars or less. It is also possible to purchase genuine examples of 18th and 19th century Japanese “samurai money” for less than $100 a coin.

The subtle beauty of the Japanese tea ceremony is something that many younger people will recognize, even if they only have a passing understanding of Japanese culture. Why? Because they have absorbed it through countless slice-of-life anime and manga.

I would not be surprised if this familiarity helped to drive future demand for beautiful and durable Japanese lacquerware outside of the island nation. Vintage or antique lacquerware often figures prominently in Japanese tea culture and is surprisingly affordable.

Even traditional Japanese attitudes towards beauty are slowly seeping into global culture from the export of anime and manga. The Japanese love of clean lines and uncluttered design is almost universally reflected in modern aesthetic trends. I believe this will ultimately have a profound impact on the demand for Japanese antiques.

For instance, shin hanga was an early to mid 20th century Japanese print movement that combined traditional Japanese themes with groundbreaking Western artistic understanding of light and perspective. It was an export-oriented artistic movement that was wildly popular in the West in the period between World War I and World War II.

In many ways, Japanese shin hanga prints are precursors to today’s manga comics, displaying the same technical accomplishment and classic Japanese sensability. Not only that, but vintage reprints of these delightful Japanese antiques are readily available for relatively modest prices. As little as $100 or $200 can get you an aesthetically compelling example to hang on your wall.

I grew up in the 1980s watching the Japanese-derived animated television series Robotech and Voltron. In the 1990s, I raptly watched the anime Sailor Moon on Cartoon Network. In 2000, I stumbled upon the anime masterpiece Neon Genesis Evangelion, which forever changed my perception of what an animated television show could be.

Since that time, I have devoured anime and manga wherever I found them. And, as a result, I fell in love with Japanese culture. Not only that, but it has also spurred an interest in Japanese antiques that I almost certainly wouldn’t have had otherwise.

I don’t believe I am alone in this trend. At just over 40 years old, I am among the first generation outside of Japan to have really embraced this new form of entertainment. Most anime and manga fans are younger than I am and their interest in Japanese culture, history and design is inexorably growing. You can bet that Japanese antiques and art will be on their radar as they mature into their 30s and 40s.

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Declining U.S. Dollar Hegemony and its Investment Implications

The U.S. dollar is currently the world’s undisputed world reserve currency. It is estimated that the global share of foreign exchange reserves kept in U.S. dollars has been consistently hovering around 64% for several years. This is extraordinary, considering that the U.S. economy only constitutes about 25% of global GDP.

One side effect of U.S. dollar hegemony is that greenbacks are accepted in exchange for goods and services all over the world. Couple this with the United State’s history of low inflation and strong economic growth and it is easy to see why the dollar became the de facto global reserve currency in the post World War II era.

In fact, in some countries U.S. dollars are considered far superior to the prevailing local currency. Average people in countries as diverse as Argentina, Venezuela, Vietnam, Greece, Zimbabwe, Egypt and Nigeria all hoard U.S. dollars in an effort to preserve the purchasing power of their savings. It is much better to have a wad of $100 bills stashed under the mattress, rather than a pile of rapidly devaluing Argentinean pesos, Venezuelan bolivares, or Egyptian pounds.

But U.S. dollar hegemony has also conferred what the French Minister of Finance, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, referred to in the 1960s as America’s “exorbitant privilege“. This is the ability of the country that issues the global reserve currency to run persistent current account deficits, allowing it to consume resources far in excess of those that it produces.

U.S. dollar hegemony has manifested itself in some surprising ways. For example, in 2016 it is estimated that the United States consumed 7,230 metric tons of silver, or more than 26% of global mine production. This is all the more shocking when one realizes that the population of the United States is only 4.3% of the world’s population.

A similar story unfolds for other luxury goods. U.S. diamond demand is estimated to be over 35% of the global pie. U.S. platinum demand is around 17.5% of global mine supply. I could not find data on colored gemstones, but you can bet that the trend is the same. With the exception of silver, the United States is not a significant producer of any of these materials – only a major consumer.

Gold is one of the few luxury raw materials where the U.S. does not take the lion’s share of global production. It only consumes about 193 metric tons of gold per annum – a mere 6% of total mine supply. But the U.S. is still the 3rd largest consumer of gold in the world. It is only surpassed by China and India, two nations that are absolutely obsessed with gold.

All of these statistics paint an alarming picture, especially considering that the global supply of luxury raw materials is slowly drying up. A world where the U.S. buys whatever it wants, regardless of its industrial production or GDP, does not seem like a very sustainable economic system. And when we examine U.S. dollar hegemony closely, we see the first signs of cracks beginning to appear.

After the 2018 tax cuts passed under the Trump administration, the United State’s budget deficit is projected to balloon to $1 trillion. That is disquieting enough by itself, but it doesn’t even contemplate the possibility of a recession or other systematic economic problem. If the U.S. does enter a recession, you can expect the budget deficit to rapidly inflate to a staggering $2 trillion.

Of course, I’m not a hyperinflation alarmist. Even these stupendously large deficits will not end U.S. dollar hegemony by themselves. But they might just signal a shift towards the eventual unraveling of our current economic system.

One way or another, the United States will one day no longer be able to grab an outsized portion of the earth’s bounty. A single country laying claim to 1/4 of the world’s silver or 1/3 of the world’s diamonds is patently ridiculous. It cannot continue and will not continue, even if the exact timing and mechanism by which U.S. dollar hegemony will unwind is unknown.

Even now, the world’s sole superpower status is being challenged by China. India is also on the horizon as an eventual economic competitor. Either the U.S. dollar is destined to fall in value or competing currencies will strengthen considerably.

Of course, the gradual decline of U.S. dollar hegemony begs a very simple question. If the rest of the world saves in U.S. dollars, then what should U.S. citizens save in? I will give you a hint here. The answer isn’t dollars.

Instead, I believe that it would be wise to invest in tangible assets, such as fine art, antiques, gemstones and bullion. These hard assets will help preserve and grow the purchasing power of your money during market crashes, currency crises and other major economic dislocations that are sure to come. This is especially important as the global financial system evolves and the United States inevitably loses its exorbitant privilege.

Perhaps most importantly, holders of U.S. dollars still have access to cheap hard assets today. People like you and I should take advantage of this fleeting strong dollar opportunity to add tangible investments to our portfolios while we can. Although U.S. dollar hegemony is clearly in decline, investing in fine art, antiques and bullion can help you avoid the worst fallout from the changing of the economic guard.

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The End of Inexpensive Fine Vintage Jewelry

I have noticed a startling trend in the fine vintage jewelry space. Good quality antique jewelry is getting harder and harder to find for reasonable prices. Of course if money is no object, it is still possible to buy superb pieces at outrageous prices. Alas, few of us find ourselves willing to do that.

As recently as 6 or 7 years ago, I could still walk into an antique or consignment shop and find multiple pieces of fine vintage jewelry in the $300 to $800 range. These were pieces crafted from solid karat gold and set with high quality gemstones.

Sometimes the stones set in this jewelry would be one of the big four gemstones: rubies, sapphires, emeralds and diamonds. If this were the case, the gems would often be on the smaller side, generally less than 1/2 carat. Alternatively, I could find fine vintage jewelry with larger, centerpiece examples of valuable second tier gemstones, like aquamarine, tourmaline or spinel.

In either case, this fine vintage jewelry was eminently investable, as well as strikingly beautiful. And at only a few hundred dollars per piece, they were also affordable. Unfortunately, wicked inflation has been hard at work in the antique jewelry market.

At first, it was the pieces set with the larger first tier gemstones that skyrocketed in value. The diamond jewelry was some of the first to go, not because white diamonds are particularly rare or desirable, but because everyone quickly recognized their value.

The large rubies, emeralds and sapphires were the next to disappear. Natural rubies, in particular, are very rare stones. Their relative abundance in 20th century jewelry is actually a quirk of Burmese-Thai geological luck, never to be repeated.

Prices for antique emerald jewelry were not far behind their ruby counterparts. This is in spite of the fact that substantial new emerald deposits were discovered in Africa in the 1960s and 1970s. These African sources have now come online, making significant contributions to global emerald supplies. But demand is still outstripping supply, leading to ever increasing emerald prices.

Even sapphire – the most common of the big three colored gemstones – eventually succumbed to the insatiable demand for inexpensive fine vintage jewelry. Sapphire prices had been depressed for decades due to the introduction of heat treatment techniques that were perfected in the late 1970s, followed by beryllium diffusion treatments around the year 2000. But now that the considerable inventories created via these treatment processes are finally exhausted, sapphire jewelry prices are moving inexorably higher.

Price increases for fine vintage jewelry were not limited to pieces set with diamonds, rubies, emeralds and sapphires, though. Next, price inflation spread to good quality second tier gemstones. These are stones like non-emerald beryl, precious topaz, fancy-colored garnets, peridot, etc.

You used to be able to buy good quality antique jewelry set with these stones for $500 or $600 all day long. Now it is becoming harder and harder to find them for reasonable prices.

I recently wrote a Spotlight article about an artisan-made modernist pendant that illustrates this point perfectly. It is crafted from solid karat gold and is set with a variety of low-to-moderate value gemstones.

Yet, the asking price is $849. And it isn’t a bad price either. In fact, it is a very good price – so good, in fact, that I think it would make an excellent investment.

If you had looked to purchase this piece on the second-hand market 10 or 15 years ago, I think you could have easily had it for perhaps $400 or $500. Not anymore, though. The price has permanently ratcheted upward, and there is every probability it will continue to go up.

In my opinion, the reasonable prices for fine vintage jewelry that we had enjoyed for many decades were a by-product of low precious metal and gemstone prices from the 1980s through the early 2000s. This mirrored the general collapse in commodity prices over the same period.

For example, in 1980 the price of a flawless, D-color 1 carat diamond peaked at around $60,000 a carat due to rampant inflation fears. Then the price declined until the late 1990s, when the same stone could be purchased for around $15,000. Currently, a white diamond of this size and quality would sell for about $20,000.

The price of gold followed a similar path. After achieving a secular high of around $850 in 1980, the coveted yellow metal then entered a vicious, two decade long bear market. Its value finally put in a double-bottom of $275 in 1999 and 2001. Currently, an ounce of gold trades for around $1,300.

Now that the value of jewelry raw materials has risen sharply, an impact on the pricing of existing fine vintage jewelry was inevitable. It has simply taken more than a decade for old inventory and stale prices to clear from the marketplace. Now that the overhang is gone, it is clear that the value of fine vintage jewelry will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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