It Can’t Happen Here – Embracing A Chaotic Future

It Can't Happen Here - Embracing A Chaotic Future
Photo Credit: Carleton Thomas Anderson

One of my favorite blogs is called Granola Shotgun.  For those who have never encountered this gem of the blogosphere before, Granola Shotgun is an eclectic collection of observations and editorials surrounding the topics of real estate, human nature, disaster preparedness and urban planning.  This might sound like an unlikely combination of themes, but let me assure you, the author (Johnny) has some superb insights into contemporary American culture.

I found one of Johnny’s recent posts, titled “Ich Will den Kaiser Zurück“, to be particularly compelling.  It deals indirectly with a theme that I have encountered again and again when researching investments: the idea that “it can’t happen here”.

I will quote a relevant portion from the post below (although I do encourage you to read the full article if you have time):

“I had a slow motion epiphany regarding the newest generation of smart charming guests from places like Sweden, Japan, Turkey, and Germany. They have no visceral memory of the twentieth century. They’ve read about it. But they were born so long after the traumatic upheavals that it’s just words. Their parents were born after World War II had already ended. And then it hit me. Their grandparents were born after the war. It’s ancient history. It goes without saying Americans have even more historical amnesia.”

This passage really struck me, perfectly crystallizing some of the troubling thoughts I had long had, but was unable to perfectly organize.  As a lover of all things antique, I have a certain affinity with history.  I am well aware that humanity repeats the same errors again and again throughout time, yet somehow still manages to delude itself into thinking that it’s different this time.

And nowhere is this historical ignorance more apparent than in the world of investing.  We are constantly bombarded by platitudes such as “buy stocks for the long run” and “the trend is your friend”.  And for many, many years these hollow phrases have seemingly worked.  In fact, they’ve worked so well that we think it can’t happen here.

What is “it”?

Banking crises, revolutions, capital controls and civil unrest are just a few of the potential disasters we face in the modern age.  These events have occurred with stunning regularity throughout history.  The United States, Western Europe and Japan have simply been lucky enough to avoid the worst of these problems in the brief, 75-year sliver of time since the end of World War II.  Unfortunately for humanity, good times breed complacency, and complacency breeds bad times.

And make no mistake, the bad times are coming.  The safeguards that should help protect us from repeating these mistakes are failing as our institutional memory fades.

Want an example?

Look no further than the revered halls of the U.S. Federal Reserve.  This most important of banking institutions has been busy pursuing destabilizing bubble-centric policies for a full 20 years at this point.  Their perpetual hope is that their latest round of money printing will finally drag the economy out of its stolid torpor.  And yet it never quite happens.

There are plenty of unpleasant side effects from it, though.

The banks bulge with the profits of usury.  The equity markets race toward the moon.  Those who are already rich become exponentially wealthier.  And all the while the average wage-earner wallows in financial misery.

A revolution?  It can’t happen here!  Can it?

Let me make a prediction.  At the end of this orgy of financial speculation, it will make little difference how many zeros are attached to the end of your bank statement.  Wealth will almost certainly not be measured in dollars, euros, yen or pounds anymore.

Instead, wealth will be determined by possession of physical goods – and not necessarily real estate.

This is an eventuality that few people are truly prepared for, myself included.  Most of my portfolio still resides in conventional assets like stocks, bonds and cash.  But I have been slowly preparing myself mentally for the changes that will take place.  I’ve been buying more gold and silver bullion.  I’ve been continuing to purchase investment grade antiques.  I’ve been getting more comfortable with the idea of saving in terms of ounces as opposed to dollars.  I’m edging towards the proverbial financial fire escape.

All of this vaguely ominous talk might seem rather conspiratorial, but it is pretty obvious that Western society is beginning to fray around the edges.  It’s rather funny that some people claim it can’t happen here when the U.S. population is clearly splitting along pro-Trump/Resistance lines.  And I’m not sure that the Brexit-addled U.K. or sclerotic Continental Europe is much better off.

Civil war looms distant on our gray horizon.

I would prefer that society not go down this ill-advised route.  But it seems as if we are being compelled by forces far more powerful than you or me.  The Treasury spends with abandon.  The Fed prints as if there are no consequences.  Politicians viciously attack each other in myopic attempts to win the next election at all costs.  I’m not the first person to say this, but all of this arrogance will end badly.

Never, never believe anyone who says it can’t happen here.  Wars, hyperinflations and civil disturbances have occurred across dozens of advanced civilizations in the not very distant past.  We are not special in this regard.  It can happen to us too.  It almost certainly will happen to us if we give it enough time.

This is why I implore you to prepare through the acquisition of tangible assets.  Buy yourself some pre-1965 junk silver coins.  Start a collection of Edo era Japanese samurai sword fittings.  Indulge yourself with a vintage Must de Cartier wristwatch.  These are relatively safe ways to save and invest in a world that is starting to spin out of control.

 

Read more thought-provoking Antique Sage editorial articles here.

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90% Silver Proof Roosevelt Dime Rolls

90% Silver Proof Roosevelt Dime Rolls
Photo Credit: Sandspur Coins and Collectibles

90% Silver Proof Roosevelt Dime Rolls

Buy It Now Price: $76.90 (price as of 2019; item no longer available)

Pros:

-These gorgeous proof Roosevelt dime rolls feature 50 frosted coins struck from solid 90% silver, giving them a face value of $5 each.

-Each dime is exactly 2.5 grams of 90% fine silver, giving a total net silver content of 112.5 grams (3.617 troy ounces) per roll.

-Proof coins are special presentation issues struck from specially prepared dies under ideal conditions.  They are intended primarily for collectors and usually sell for significant premiums over non-proof versions.

-All Roosevelt dimes were struck in 90% silver from the inception of the series in 1946 until 1964, when silver was removed from most circulating U.S. coinage.  No silver dimes were struck for the next 28-years.  Then, in 1992 the U.S. government began issuing annual proof sets that contained regular-circulating coin denominations (including dimes) minted in silver.

-Although the seller is not specific about the dates you might receive, the photos seem to indicate that most of these silver proof Roosevelt dime rolls will be modern (i.e. 1992 and later) in nature.  Of course, we can’t rule out the possibility that you might receive early 1960s, or even late 1950s, silver proof Roosevelt dimes.

-Modern silver proof dimes struck since 1992 are much rarer than their circulating counterparts, with mintages usually less than 1/1000th of the latter.  They are also rarer than non-silver proof dimes, having been minted at only 1/2 to 1/3 their rate.

-With spot silver trading for around $14.85 a troy ounce, these silver proof Roosevelt dime rolls contain just under $54 worth of silver each.  This means you are only paying around $23 over melt per roll – a premium of about 43%.  This is quite a low premium for proof coins, which will always have at least some numismatic potential.

-I’m normally not a fan of most modern coinage from a collector’s perspective.  They are often staggeringly over-issued base-metal abominations, with little hope of future numismatic demand.  However, I am willing to make exceptions for extraordinary situations.  And these silver proof Roosevelt dime rolls certainly qualify as extraordinary, with their blazing gem cameo specimens minted in precious metal.

-I believe these 90% silver proof Roosevelt dime rolls are well worth the $77 asking price.  They would be a great addition to any silver bullion stack, adding the diversification of collector’s value to what is otherwise a straightforward bullion purchase.

 

Cons:

-If you are just looking to stockpile junk silver, you can buy a roll of circulated 90% silver Roosevelt dimes for maybe $60 to $65.  So each silver proof Roosevelt dime roll will cost you an extra $15 over an equivalent junk roll.  But this hardly seems like a con to me, given the added investment potential of proof issues.

 

Read more fascinating Antique Sage bullion spotlight posts here.

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Ancient Ptolemaic Bronze Coins

Ancient Ptolemaic Bronze Coins
Photo Credit: highrating_lowprice

We live in an age of striking impermanence.  And yet we occasionally stumble across something that is the antithesis of the ephemeral.  Sometimes an item – a very special item – speaks to us across the void of millennia, connecting us with civilizations long dead.

This is exactly how I feel about the Ptolemaic bronze coins of ancient Egypt.

The Ptolemaic dynasty was a remarkable Hellenistic empire founded by one of Alexander the Great’s finest generals, Ptolemy I.  After Alexander died unexpectedly in 323 BC, Ptolemy I carved an Egyptian kingdom out of the ruins of Alexander’s rapidly disintegrating empire.   By fusing Greek culture with native Egyptian customs, the Ptolemies created the most successful and enduring of Alexander’s successor states.

Ptolemy I’s empire lasted longer than any other major Hellenistic kingdom, only meeting its end in 30 BC after its infamous queen, the cunning seductress Cleopatra, was defeated at the great battle of Actium in the Ionian Sea.  Rather than enduring a humiliating surrender to Rome’s first emperor, Augustus Caesar, Cleopatra instead chose to commit suicide via the poisonous bite of a deadly asp.

Ancient Ptolemaic bronze coins usually display the laureate, ram-horned head of the god Zeus-Ammon on the obverse and a noble eagle (or twin eagles) on the reverse.  Zeus-Ammon was the Hellenistic synthesis of Zeus, the Greek king of the gods, and his horned Egyptian counterpart Ammon.  This merger of Greek and Egyptian culture reflected Ptolemaic policies promoting themselves as the new Pharaohs of Egypt.

There are remarkably few ancient and medieval bronze coins that can be considered investment worthy.  I am of the opinion that only Imperial Roman bronze coinage joins its Ptolemaic peers in meriting serious investment consideration.  Being low denomination pieces, pre-modern bronze coinage was often carelessly minted via sloppy striking with crude dies.  This resulted in poor quality coins that collectors tend to pass up in favor of gold or silver coins.

Fortunately, ancient Ptolemaic bronze coins were a notable exception to this rule.  Dies engraved in the finest Greek style were used to meticulously strike these numismatic masterpieces in magnificently high relief.  In addition, Ptolemaic bronze coins can be enormous, reaching up to 50 millimeters (2 inches) in diameter and 100 grams (3.5 ounces) in weight.

Interestingly, most examples have a small, depressed dimple on the center of both faces of the coin.  This is a commonplace byproduct of the ancient manufacturing process.

When purchasing these marvelous ancient coins it is important to look for examples that are well-centered, well-struck and have a pleasing patina.  Patina is a thin layer of attractive oxidation that accumulates on a bronze coin over the course of centuries.  Although green or brown patinas are most commonly encountered, a myriad of other colors is also possible, including black, red and even blue!

A fine patina not only materially increases the beauty and value of a bronze coin, but also protects it against harmful corrosion as well. This is one of the reasons ancient or medieval bronze coinage should never be cleaned.

Bronze coins were the workhorse denominations of the ancient Mediterranean world, regularly used to purchase life’s necessities like bread, olive oil and wine.  Consequently, surviving specimens tend to be heavily worn.  Therefore, it is imperative to only consider coins with light to moderate wear.

Ancient bronze coins could also circulate for immense lengths of times, causing some pieces to be worn down to little more than smooth metal slugs.  In one anecdotal story, an ancient Imperial Roman bronze coin was found counterstruck with a revaluation mark from 16th century Spain, implying that the piece circulated continuously for approximately 1500 years!

Another key attribute to consider when collecting Egyptian Ptolemaic bronze coins is size.  A bronze coin’s size is expressed in conjunction the abbreviation “AE” – which stands for bronze – followed by a number that reflects the coin’s diameter in millimeters.  As an example, “AE30” would be a bronze coin with a diameter of 30 millimeters.

I consider investment quality Ptolemaic bronze coinage to start at 27 or 28 millimeters in diameter, with specimens over 30 millimeters being preferable.  As you can probably guess, the larger a coin is, the higher its price.  This is understandable, as larger Egyptian Ptolemaic bronze coins were struck in such high relief as to border on being ancient sculpture, rather than merely coins!

An Egyptian Ptolemaic bronze coin portraying the ram-horned god Zeus-Ammon with his wild, windswept hair is the epitome of ancient Greek Hellenistic art.  And yet these timeless coins are still grossly underappreciated in today’s art market.  Investment grade examples start at around $100 and go up to about $500 in price.  Truly magnificent, museum quality coins are uncommon, but will sometimes be offered for sale above $500.

As these coins become more widely acknowledged, prices are certain to rise.  After all, a massive, high-relief bronze coin that captures the ancient cultural amalgamation of Hellenistic Greece and Pharaonic Egypt is a work of art to be coveted.

 

Read more thought-provoking Antique Sage coin articles here.

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Old Mine Cut Edwardian Diamond Ring, Circa 1905

Old Mine Cut Edwardian Diamond Ring, Circa 1905
Photo Credit: Authentic Jewelry and Coin

Old Mine Cut Edwardian Diamond Ring, Circa 1905

Buy It Now Price: $1,079.99 (price as of 2019; item no longer available)

Pros:

-This Edwardian diamond ring exudes Gilded era elegance with 9 sparkling old mine cut diamonds mounted in an 18 karat gold checkerboard setting.

-The face of this luscious antique ring measures 12.4 mm (0.49 inches) tall by 11.7 mm (0.46 inches) wide.  The entire ring weighs a substantial 4.22 grams (0.1356 troy ounces), which is quite a lot for a ring this size.

–Old mine cut diamonds were a cushion-shaped diamond cut popular from the early 19th century until around 1910.  They were defined by high crowns, deep pavilions, and large culets.  These unique proportions endowed old mine cut diamonds with a dazzling fire and charming warmth that simply can’t be found in modern brilliant cut diamonds.

-The seller estimates the average weight of each H-I color, VVS2-VS1 clarity diamond in the ring to be around 0.18 carats, for a grand total carat weight of 1.62.  From the measurements of the ring given, I have conservatively calculated that the diamonds weigh between 0.10 and 0.20 carats each, for a total guesstimated weight of 1.35 carats.  This discrepancy (1.35 carats versus 1.62 carats) is minor, but underscores the fact that the stated carat weight of a mounted stone is always an approximation.

–The Edwardian period was wedged in-between the death of Queen Victoria around the year 1900 and the start of World War I in 1914.  Although it didn’t persist for very long, the Edwardian era was famous for its glorification of wealth, luxury and the aristocracy – think Downton Abbey.

-I estimate the melt value of the gold in this Edwardian diamond ring to be around $170 (with the spot price of gold at $1,335 an ounce.)  While the old mine cut diamonds are harder to value, I think they should be worth at least $500 a carat (on a bad day) for a total value of $675.

-This Edwardian diamond ring is in great condition, with no excessive wear, damage or obvious repairs.  In addition, it features superb goldwork with no messy solder or other distractions – an incredibly unusual situation for a ring that is over a century old.

-Totaling the value of the ring’s gold and diamonds gives an aggregate intrinsic value of nearly $850.  This is only $230 off the asking price, which is a pleasant surprise.  It is rare to find quality antique jewelry selling for anywhere close to its intrinsic value these days.

-The ring’s gold grid pattern conveys a sense of solidity while the old mine cut diamonds allow it to retain that characteristic Edwardian feeling of etherealness.  This might seem like a contradiction, but this antique ring manages to pull it off brilliantly nonetheless.

–Edwardian jewelry is becoming increasingly scarce and desirable as the years pass, setting the stage for an inevitable upward readjustment in value.

-At an asking price of less than $1,100, this Edwardian diamond ring would be a great choice for the antique collector, investor or jewelry buff.  I cannot stress how rare it is to find such a superb piece of antique jewelry for such a low price.

 

Cons:

-This Edwardian diamond ring is set exclusively with melee stones.  These are defined as faceted diamonds weighing less than 0.20 carats (or 20 points) each.  Melee diamonds are primarily used as accent pieces in modern jewelry because they cost less per carat than larger diamonds.  I don’t think the primary motivation for using melee diamonds in this wonderful old ring was monetary, but aesthetic.  However, the fact remains that melee diamonds (even old mine cut melee diamonds) are worth less per carat than their larger, non-melee equivalents.

 

Read more fascinating Antique Sage estate jewelry spotlight posts here.

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