Siberian Nephrite Jade Slab

Siberian Nephrite Jade Slab
Photo Credit: BaikalGems

Siberian Nephrite Jade Slab

Asking Price: $180 (price as of 2018; item no longer available)

Pros:

-$180 will buy you this alternative investment extraordinaire – a slab of polished Siberian nephrite jade straight from Asiatic Russia.

-This impressive block of polished Siberian nephrite jade measures 16.0 cm (6.3 inches) by 15.3 cm (6.0 inches) by 2.2 cm (0.9 inches) thick.  It weighs a substantial 1,650 grams (3.64 pounds).

-While the Chinese have revered and treasured jade for millennia, Western cultures are only now coming to appreciate this unique gemstone. This is one of the reasons I think rough jade is a good investment – as the word spreads of its amazing physical and optical qualities, long-term global demand is sure to grow.

-The bright, apple-green color of this nephrite jade is characteristic of Siberian material, which is very popular in the Chinese market.  According to the seller, this specimen was mined in the Sayan Mountains in Asiatic Russia, near Lake Baikal.

-Before 2000, Siberian nephrite jade only cost a few dollars a kilo.  It was so cheap that it wasn’t even worth extracting from the rugged Russian wilderness.  However, strong and persistent Chinese demand has propelled the price of top tier material to well over $1,000 a kilo.

-The small black inclusions scattered throughout the green stone are iron-rich chromite (FeCr2O4), a classic hallmark of nephrite jade.

-The quality of this Siberian nephrite jade is very high.  It offers a crisp, even color combined with good translucency and a moderate texture.  This means it could easily be used to make jade jewelry, carvings or other objets d’art by a skilled craftsman.

-Because we know the dimensions and weight of this Siberian nephrite jade slab, we can calculate its density to help confirm its genuineness.  We can do this by dividing the weight of the piece (1,650 grams) by its volume (538.6 cm3).  This gives us a density of approximately 3.06 gm/cm3, which is well within the range of natural nephrite jades (2.9 – 3.3 gm/cm3).

-There is nothing like the heft and solidity of a jade block held in the hand.  In some ways, I view rough jade as “the other bullion”.  It is a great alternative to simply stacking gold and silver bars for those with more adventurous investment tastes.

-At an asking price of only $109 per kilogram (or around $50 per pound), this block of rough Siberian nephrite jade is an incredible bargain, especially considering that similar quality Siberian material may sell in the Chinese market for several hundred dollars a kilo!

 

Cons:

-Because it is coming all the way from Russia, the shipping costs on this block of jade are relatively high.  According to Etsy, it would cost $32 to transport the stone to my little corner of the United States and would take between 10 and 40 business days to arrive!

-Although this slab of Siberian nephrite jade is good quality, it is not of the very highest quality.  The very best material would have absolutely no chromite inclusions or veining at all.  But top-quality nephrite jade is both incredibly rare and unbelievably expensive.

 

Read more fascinating Antique Sage spotlight posts here.

-or-

Read in-depth Antique Sage investment guides here.

Total U.S. Securities Outstanding and the Coming Bubble Reversal

Total U.S. Securities Outstanding and the Coming Bubble Reversal

I have a confession to make.  I am a big fan of Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin.  His weekly macroeconomic blog astutely details the evolving monstrosity that is our Frankenstein bubble economy.

In one of his recent posts, Mr. Noland dissected the Federal Reserve’s Q4 2017 Z.1 Flow of Funds report.  What I found particularly fascinating was the way he compared historical total U.S. securities outstanding to total U.S. GDP.  I will quote him below:

Total (Debt and Equities) Securities ended 2017 at a record $88.651 TN.  Total Securities surged to a record 449% of GDP, up from 429% to conclude 2016.  For perspective, Total Securities to GDP peaked at 379% ($55.3TN) during Q3 2007 and 359% ($36.0TN) at cycle highs in Q1 2000.  Total Securities as a percent of GDP ended 1970 at 148%, 1975 at 122%, 1980 at 128%, 1985 at 155%, 1990 at 189%, and 1995 at 262%.

His analysis was so intriguing that I resolved to independently replicate the data using Federal Reserve data.  You can see the fruits of my labor in the chart above.

It shows the combined market value of all U.S. securities outstanding (both debt and equity, which are also broken-out separately) charted as a percentage of U.S. GDP since 1951.  If you want to know why I believe we are currently living through the largest bubble the world has ever known, well, this is it.

All the data for this chart comes directly from the Fed.  It uses the L.208 Debt Securities table and the L.223 Corporate Equities table from the Fed’s Z.1 report, in addition to GDP values from the FRED database.

The implications of the excessive amount of U.S. securities outstanding should be terrifying to every investor, saver and entrepreneur out there.  It indicates that combined U.S. debt and equity assets have to take a 66% haircut to get back to pre-1990s “normal” levels of 150% of GDP.  Even if you assume that a permanently elevated level at 200% of GDP is warranted, anything less than a 50% across the board loss is unrealistic.

 

1/4 Troy Ounce Gold Bullion Coins for Sale on eBay

(This is an affiliate link for which I may be compensated)

 

Not only does the U.S. securities outstanding chart clearly show prior bubble peaks, but it also shows the reasoning behind why they are bubbles.  All securities ultimately “pay-out” via GDP.  When you sell a security to fund your retirement or buy a new car, you are, in effect, exchanging that stock or bond for current goods and services – in other words, GDP.

Because of this, it is reasonable to assume that an economy can only support a certain level of aggregate security value in relation to GDP.  Situations like we have today, where we are clearly above that level, do not spell imminent economic doom of course.  But it does make for a very unstable financial system.

The situation is a lot like an old-fashioned bank run.  As long as no one tries to exchange their overvalued securities for real goods and services, everything appears to be fine.  But this is an illusion – the calm before the storm.

In reality, the economy can’t cover all the claims against it.  The ultimate winners are the first people to exchange their overvalued securities for real goods and services (or something else that will hold its value, like tangible assets).

Everybody who tries to cash out later will find that there is little or nothing left for them.  These are the losers in our scenario.  Can you imagine what it will look like if almost every 401-k, IRA and brokerage account across the country takes a 50% to 70% loss within a few short years?  This is exactly what could happen when our present bubble eventually bursts.

This is why I advocate investing in hard assets, such as fine art, antiques and precious metals.  These underappreciated assets haven’t experienced the same ruinous bubble dynamics that paper assets like stocks and bonds have.  As a result, tangible assets should hold their value admirably in the coming bubble reversal.

 

Read more thought-provoking Antique Sage investing articles here.

-or-

Read in-depth Antique Sage investment guides here.


Anime and Manga Fuel Future Demand for Japanese Antiques

Anime and Manga Fuel Future Demand for Japanese Antiques

Japanese anime and manga – Japanese animation and comics, respectively – have taken the world by storm over the past 20 years.  Their beautiful illustrations, compelling storylines and skillful treatment of adult themes have vaulted anime and manga to the forefront of modern culture.  This is in stark contrast to Western cartoons and comics, which are widely viewed as being children’s entertainment (although Disney’s recent treatment of the Marvel Universe is beginning to change these perceptions).

Japanese anime and manga had humble origins.  Early releases from the 1960s, like Osama Tezuka (Astro Boy) and Mach GoGoGo (Speed Racer), often featured stripped down, bare bones animation that depended heavily on reused frames.  But in spite of these tentative beginnings, the genre steadily evolved.

By the 1980s, anime and manga became something that any Japanophile would immediately recognize today.  Groundbreaking animated feature films such as the cyberpunk classic Akira, the environmentalist saga Nausicaä of the Valley of the Wind and World War II tragedy Grave of the Fireflies were all produced during this time.  Anime and manga had finally come of age as a storytelling medium.

Once Japanese creators cracked the code for great anime and manga, they began to export their product worldwide.  And young people around the world quickly embraced the new creative genre with open arms.  Anime and manga are now viewed, read, streamed and purchased all over the globe, from ultra-conservative Saudi Arabia to sophisticated France and everywhere in between.  At this point, Japanese anime and manga are ubiquitous, with anyone under the age of 35 instantly recognizing their characteristic style.

So at this point you may very well ask the question: What does anime and manga have to do with Japanese antiques?

The answer is simple.  Anime and manga have been important vectors for the 21st century export of Japanese traditions, culture and aesthetics to a global audience.  While anime and manga span a multitude of different storylines, almost all of them share a common theme – they emphasize Japanese history, Japanese style and Japanese mythology.  Anime and manga provide ample opportunity for the absorption of traditional Japanese culture by foreigners.

For example, the Japanese samurai is a mythical, larger than life figure in Japanese culture – the East Asian equivalent of the cowboy in the American West.  And, largely due to the influence of anime and manga, samurai are also held in the same esteem abroad.  There are innumerable anime and manga that use the samurai and ninja of feudal, pre-modern Japan as a backdrop, including popular titles such as Naruto, Samurai Champloo and Gintama.

There are many Japanese antiques from the time of the Tokugawa Shogunate that would appeal to these anime and manga fans.  For instance, exquisitely-crafted, Edo-era Japanese samurai sword guards, or tsuba, are readily available for only a few hundred dollars or less.  It is also possible to purchase genuine examples of 18th and 19th century Japanese “samurai money” for less than $100 a coin.

The subtle beauty of the Japanese tea ceremony is something that many younger people will recognize, even if they only have a passing understanding of Japanese culture.  Why?  Because they have absorbed it through countless slice-of-life anime and manga.

I would not be surprised if this familiarity helped to drive future demand for beautiful and durable Japanese lacquerware outside of the island nation.  Vintage or antique lacquerware often figures prominently in Japanese tea culture and is surprisingly affordable.

Even traditional Japanese attitudes towards beauty are slowly seeping into global culture from the export of anime and manga.  The Japanese love of clean lines and uncluttered design is almost universally reflected in modern aesthetic trends.  I believe this will ultimately have a profound impact on the demand for Japanese antiques.

For instance, shin hanga was an early to mid 20th century Japanese print movement that combined traditional Japanese themes with groundbreaking Western artistic understanding of light and perspective.  It was an export-oriented artistic movement that was wildly popular in the West in the period between World War I and World War II.

In many ways, Japanese shin hanga prints are precursors to today’s manga comics, displaying the same technical accomplishment and classic Japanese sensability.  Not only that, but vintage reprints of these delightful Japanese antiques are readily available for relatively modest prices.  As little as $100 or $200 can get you an aesthetically compelling example to hang on your wall.

I grew up in the 1980s watching the Japanese-derived animated television series Robotech and Voltron.  In the 1990s, I raptly watched the anime Sailor Moon on Cartoon Network.  In 2000, I stumbled upon the anime masterpiece Neon Genesis Evangelion, which forever changed my perception of what an animated television show could be.

Since that time, I have devoured anime and manga wherever I found them.  And, as a result, I fell in love with Japanese culture.  Not only that, but it has also spurred an interest in Japanese antiques that I almost certainly wouldn’t have had otherwise.

I don’t believe I am alone in this trend.  At just over 40 years old, I am among the first generation outside of Japan to have really embraced this new form of entertainment.  Most anime and manga fans are younger than I am and their interest in Japanese culture, history and design is inexorably growing.  You can bet that Japanese antiques and art will be on their radar as they mature into their 30s and 40s.

 

Read more thought-provoking Antique Sage trend articles here.

-or-

Read in-depth Antique Sage investment guides here.

Edo Era Signed Japanese Tsuba from the Ishiguro School

Edo Era Signed Japanese Tsuba from the Ishiguro School
Photo Credit: matsu-kaze-japan

Edo Era Signed Japanese Tsuba from the Ishiguro School

Buy It Now Price: $770 (price as of 2018; item no longer available)

Pros:

-Elegant herons wading in a bamboo-lined stream adorn this late Edo era signed Japanese tsuba from the Ishiguro School.  A tsuba is the decorative sword guard from a Japanese samurai sword.

-This antique Japanese tsuba measures 63 mm (2.5 inches) long by 57 mm (2.2 inches) wide by 4 mm (0.16 inches) thick.

-The body of this signed Japanese tsuba is made from shibuichi, a traditional Japanese alloy composed of 25% silver and 75% copper.  However, this particular specimen is a slightly lighter color than the normally metallic gray material.  This indicates it is most likely a shibuichi variation called “nami-shibuichi uchi-sanbu”, which is an alloy of 30% silver, 69% copper and 1% gold.

-This particular tsuba is signed “Hiroyuki (with Kao)”.  Hiroyuki was the student of Ishiguro Masaaki, a well-known tsuba craftsman of the Ishiguro School who lived from circa 1815 to 1875.

-The late Edo era, also called the Bakumatsu, was a period of chaos and social unrest in Japan.  The feudal Tokugawa shogunate, which had ruled the country uncontested for the prior 250 years, began disintegrating due to the encroachment of foreign powers.  This societal upheaval upended the samurai class’s traditional status in Japan, leading to their demise in the 1870s.

-According to the book “Tsuba: Japanese Sword Guards” by Gary D. Murtha, the Ishiguro School was founded by the master Masatsune in the late 18th or early 19th century.  They often employed shakudo (composed of 93% to 97% copper and 3% to 7% gold) and shibuichi alloys in combination with designs featuring birds or people.  The late Ishiguro School was also notable for its fine chasing technique, which is easily apparent on this magnificent specimen.

-Because this Japanese tsuba was signed by a disciple of Ishiguro Masaaki, it narrows down its date of creation to sometime near the end of the Edo period, possibly in the 1860s.  This is a positive attribute, as it is not normally possibly to date an antique Japanese tsuba so precisely.

-This Japanese tsuba from the Ishiguro School is an exceptionally high quality piece, with its applied heron and bamboo decorations superbly crafted from shakudo, gold and silver.  In addition, a signed tsuba is generally a hallmark of quality, and will be more valuable than a similar tsuba that isn’t signed.

-I firmly believe that Japanese art and antiques, like this lovely tsuba, are tremendously undervalued in today’s investment market.

 

Cons:

-It is difficult to find much fault with this gorgeous signed Japanese tsuba.  I suppose you can argue that it is somewhat expensive at $770.  However, I have found that superlative antiques always sell for a premium.  And as long as that premium is not egregiously high, it is my experience that you will be sorry for not opening your wallet when the opportunity arises.

 

Read more fascinating Antique Sage spotlight posts here.

-or-

Read in-depth Antique Sage investment guides here.