Beware the Crypto-Currency Carnage

Beware the Crypto-Currency Carnage
Photo Credit: Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations

The crypto-currency complex had a magnificent 2017. Bitcoin jumped in value by a factor of 14 over that period. Ethereum skyrocketed 92 times in price in the same timeframe. Litecoin multiplied in value by 51 times. Ripple soared to 361 times its value at the beginning of the year.

And yet, all is not well in crypto-currency land today. Since the beginning of 2018, a crypto-currency carnage has gripped the markets, sending nearly all crypto-coins plummeting in value. Bitcoin is down -61% since its peak near the start of 2018. Ethereum is off -71% over the same period. Litecoin plummeted -60% over a few short months. Ripple is the big loser among the top crypto-currencies, with a harrowing -85% decline since the beginning of the year.

Now, the true believers out there won’t be nonplussed by this crypto-currency carnage. They will (correctly) point out that crypto-currencies have always been subject to massive and abrupt swings in value. For these devotees, a 100% gain or 50% loss within a few days time is simply the price one pays for being at the cutting edge of money and technology.

But crypto-currency enthusiasts would do well to tread with caution here. I’ve have seen this story before, and the ending is never pretty. I’ve written about crypto-currencies before, but given the speed and magnitude of recent market developments there is an exigent need to reexamine the crypto-asset landscape.

For my first exhibit, I would like to direct your attention to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. This mania was driven by the realization that the internet could be used for commerce. Companies like Pets.com (now bankrupt), Yahoo, Kozmo.com (also bankrupt) and Juniper Networks all skyrocketed in value.

Hundreds of technology companies IPO’d with little more than an appropriately tech-oriented name and a vague business plan scribbled on the back of a napkin. Their stocks would often double (or more) on their first day of public trading.

The outcome was as predictable as it was sad. Yes, the internet had vast commercial potential, but precious few of the original dot-com companies lived to see it (Amazon being a notable exception). The tech heavy NASDAQ stock index peaked in March of 2000 and proceeded to plummet by almost 80% over the next 2 1/2 years. Many individual dot-com names went bankrupt, while others simply languished in price for more than a decade. Many surviving technology companies haven’t regained their price peak from those heady days.

In many ways, today’s situation with crypto-currencies is parallel to the dot-com bubble of 2000. Rather than IPOs (initial public offerings) we are seeing rampant ICOs (initial coin offerings) and their conceptual twin, the hard-fork. A hard-fork is when an existing crypto-currency is split into an original coin and a new variant that has slightly different technical aspects.

And, of course, you always see the most ICOs and hard-forks when the demand for new crypto-currencies is strongest (like during a bubble). Let’s use Bitcoin as an example because it is the best known and most liquid of the crypto-currencies.

In July 2017, Bitcoin Cash hard-forked from Bitcoin. In October 2017, Bitcoin Gold was spun off. In November 2017, it was Bitcoin Diamond’s turn. Super Bitcoin hit the virtual shelves in December 2017. And these are just a few of the major releases.

If you are noticing a trend here, you are not alone. Bitcoin hard-forks are being manufactured as fast as possible. And while the ostensible reason is to make needed technical changes to Bitcoin’s plumbing, the real reason is to cash in before the crypto-currency carnage escalates further.

Don’t believe me? Just take a look at this voluminous list of Bitcoin hard-forks and airdrops, almost all of which occurred in 2017 or later (after crypto-currency prices began skyrocketing).

Another way you can tell that the crypto-currency carnage is for real is by simply looking at almost any crypto-currency chart. They all look practically identical, with only minor variations.

The chart at the top of this article perfectly illustrates this point. It shows Bitcoin’s market cap from 2013 until March 30, 2018. There is a long, multi-year period of flat performance, followed by an exponential curve upward in 2017 and then the beginnings of a collapse in 2018.

Every time I have ever seen a chart like this in the stock market, commodities market, futures market or any other market, the outcome has always been the same – either bankruptcy or a return to the long-term trendline. And while crypto-currencies cannot technically go bankrupt, they can become defunct and cease to trade.

I am not so bold as to predict the end of major crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin or Ripple. But even so, a return to their long-term trendlines would be a devastating development for anybody holding them.

For instance, if Bitcoin’s price declined to its long-term trendline, it would imply a value well below $1,000 per Bitcoin – perhaps as low as a few hundred dollars (from over $8,000 right now). Ethereum might trade for $20 or $30 an Ether (down from $500). Litecoin could possibly go for only $5 per coin (versus today’s $131). Ripple might go back to a penny or two each (from $0.67 currently).

I know it seems ludicrous now, but yes, the incipient crypto-currency carnage could absolutely get that bad.

If you are a holder of crypto-currencies, my intention isn’t to scare you. Instead it is to give you a little bit of historical perspective. Crypto-currencies are new and exciting, but they are also thoroughly untested. In fact, since the crypto-currency complex sprang up, the United States and most other developed nations haven’t experienced a significant recession.

In such a scenario, people will desperately need dollars, pounds, euros or yen to pay for their groceries, student loans, utility bills, mortgages and car payments. And with few exceptions, crypto-currencies won’t be acceptable for those debts and obligations.

This is why I advocate using financial diversification to help you avoid the imminent crypto-currency carnage. If you hold a lot of crypto-currencies today, please consider selling a bit and moving the proceeds into cash, high quality bonds, precious metals or other hard assets. You can always reallocate these investments back into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin or Ripple at a later date – and probably at a significantly lower price, as well.

 

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Antique Sin Accessories – Why Naughty Is Nice

Antique Sin Accessories - Why Naughty Is Nice

I’m constantly on the lookout for high quality antiques to invest in. In order to qualify, a potential investment grade antique has to have a combination of desirable elements: portability, quality, durability and scarcity. But perhaps most importantly, it must also possess zeitgeist – an ineffable historical or cultural rightness.

After looking at many thousands of antiques, I have discovered an interesting trend related to zeitgeist. Some of the most desirable, but underrated, antiques are what I term sin accessories. These are antique or vintage items that are related to vice. I have identified three major categories of sin accessories: tobacco, alcohol and gambling. And they all invariably share the “it” factor – the prevailing zeitgeist of an age – that collectors crave so desperately.

The reason why antique sin accessories are so desirable is self evident; people love to do things that are illicit! Want a shady activity to become instantly popular? Just make it illegal. It imbues any activity with a clandestine air that is both exhilarating and thrilling. A great example of this comes from the era of U.S. Prohibition in the 1920s, which quickly transformed hard liquor drinking into a dominant social trend enjoyed by sophisticates, party-goers and thrill-seekers alike.

If prostitution was the world’s first profession, being a lush was probably the second. Alcohol has been indulged in for thousands of years, by everyone from the ancient Romans to the ancient Chinese. However, it was only with the popularization of distilled alcoholic beverages – the hard liquors such as brandy, whiskey, vodka, gin, rum and tequila – that alcohol really came into its own.

And, if you’re going to enjoy a tipple of hard liquor, what better way to do so than with the appropriate sin accessories? The 18th and 19th century British upper class were partial to sterling silver liquor labels. These were name plaques or tags forged from solid sterling silver that were used to identify a bottle of alcohol before the advent of paper labels. Another classic alcohol-related sin accessory was the early 20th century swizzle stick, a sterling silver spoon-and-straw-in-one combo that was perfect for cocktails and mixed drinks.

The French, however, were the masters of liquor-related sin accessories. They perfected the art of alcoholic indulgence with lavish silver cordial shot glasses, sumptuous crystal decanters with silver mounts and extravagant liquor flasks. Of course, as so often happens, other nations, like Great Britain, Germany, the U.S. and Japan, followed the French lead and produced their own variations on these themes.

Tobacco consumption may not be mankind’s first vice, but what it lacks in history it makes up for in intensity. After its introduction in Europe from the New World during the 16th century, tobacco use rapidly developed into a sin for the ages. Over the centuries, people have developed a number of ways to enjoy this nicotine-laden plant. But the three primary ways are snuff (powdered tobacco meant to be inhaled), pipe smoking and cigar/cigarette smoking.

In spite of the fact that smoking has declined in the developed world, certain kinds of tobacco use have made something of a resurgence recently – notably pipe smoking and cigar smoking. These types of tobacco consumption are often viewed as being more genteel and refined, not to mention less risky, than cigarette smoking.

Collectors of tobacco-related sin accessories have an assortment of luxury items to choose from. In the late 18th and early 19th century, tiny and ornate silver or gold snuff boxes were all the rage among the European aristocracy. Later, in the late 19th and early 20th century, lavish sterling silver cigarette and cigar cases became a stylish way to carry around your tobacco of choice. In the mid 20th century, chic smokers used amber or tortoiseshell cigarette and cigar holders to enjoy their tobacco with flair.

Gambling sin accessories round out our trio of illicit vices. Many people throughout history, but especially the idle rich, have been obsessed with gambling. As the middle class developed in the 19th and early 20th centuries, gambling was gradually democratized.

In spite of this, gambling was still viewed suspiciously by polite society. But this didn’t stop illegal gambling dens from springing up wherever law enforcement was lax. Eventually, society agreed to disagree on gambling by legalizing it in only a few locations – (pre-revolution) Cuba, Macau, Las Vegas and Monaco – which quickly entered the popular imagination as centers of excitement and fortune.

Fine hardwood poker sets, old Bakelite dice sets and vintage casino chips are examples of antique gambling-related sin accessories. Every so often, it is even possible to find a real gem, like this early 19th century Georgian gold, bone and enamel dice cup.

For antique collectors or investors, sin accessories are natural focal points. Do you want to capture the zeitgeist of the Parisian Belle Époque? A magnificent silver and glass French liquor flask would do that. Perhaps you want to relive the glory of mid 20th century New York culture? In that case, a Mad Men style vintage cigarette or cigar holder would do the trick. Or perhaps you want to evoke the glamour of a 1920s Monaco high roller going all in? Vintage mother of pearl casino chips are just the ticket for that.

 

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Gold Capped Omega Seamaster Sparkle Wristwatch, Circa 1970

Gold Capped Omega Seamaster Sparkle Wristwatch, Circa 1970
Photo Credit: bethw2222

Gold Capped Omega Seamaster Sparkle Wristwatch, Circa 1970

Buy It Now Price: $675.75 (price as of 2018; item no longer available)

Pros:

-This vintage gold capped Omega Seamaster wristwatch from 1970 sports a robust, caliber 750 automatic movement with day-date function and a super funky “sparkle” enamel dial.

-Omega is one of the world’s most famous luxury watch makers, second only to Rolex in name recognition. And since its initial release in 1948, the Omega Seamaster has been one of the brand’s most desirable and well-known models.

-A gold capped wristwatch is a solid stainless steel case that has been “topped” or “capped” with a thin karat gold shell. The gold shell is actually fabricated separately and then mechanically fitted onto the specially prepared stainless steel case – a very expensive and labor-intensive process. The precious metal layer on gold capped wristwatches is much thicker than on either gold electroplated or gold-filled wristwatches.

-The Swiss 17-jewel Omega 750 movement was manufactured between 1966 and 1970 specifically for the U.S. import market. Due to its lower number of jewels, the Omega 750 movement had smaller import duties than its almost identical 24-jewel sibling, the Omega caliber 752.

-Gold electroplated jewelry usually has a thickness of only 2 or 3 microns (millionths of a meter). Very heavy electroplate is 20 microns thick. Gold-fill on watches is often between 50 and 120 microns. But a vintage gold capped wristwatch from a high-end manufacturer like Omega or Rolex will generally be around 200 microns (0.2 millimeters) or even a bit thicker. It is the very thickest gold-plating out there.

-This vintage gold capped Omega Seamaster wristwatch is engraved on the back with “GEORGE KRAFT 12-22-71 FROM MEN OF EAST RIVER”. I find this interesting because it obviously references the East River in New York City, which separates Manhattan from Brooklyn. The watch was undoubtedly a gift for someone who worked in a blue collar association or union.

-Gold capped wristwatches were popular from the 1950s through the 1970s, when they fell out of favor due to their higher cost of production versus gold electroplated and gold-filled versions.

-Due to its unique metallic reflective dial, this type of Omega is sometimes known as the Seamaster Sparkle among watch collectors. Better yet, the dial looks like it is both original and in great condition.

-I was actually going to originally feature a similar vintage gold capped Omega Seamaster in my Spotlight post this week, but it sold (at a buy-it-now price of $850) before I could complete my write-up!

-While I don’t normally recommend gold-filled or gold-plated watches for the horological enthusiast, gold capped wristwatches get my official stamp of approval. They do not have the same drawbacks of watches with thinner gold plate. For example, regardless of how badly they get scratched, gold capped watches will not expose the base metal underneath. For all intents and purposes, they wear just as well as a solid karat gold watch.

-A gold capped Omega Seamaster wristwatch in good condition will generally cost just as much as (or sometimes more than) an identical all stainless steel model. With a buy-it-now price of only $675, this vintage gold capped Omega Seamaster represents good value in a classic timepiece.

 

Cons:

-All else being equal, a gold capped wristwatch will never be as desirable as the same watch in solid karat gold. However, a gold capped wristwatch is a reasonable way to acquire a vintage gold watch without the exorbitant cost of solid karat gold specimens, which are often 2 to 3 times higher in price.

-I believe the crown of this gold capped Omega Seamaster is a replacement, as it does not have the Omega logo on it. If desired, a new, period correct Omega crown could be procured for between $50 and $100.

-The stainless steel back of this watch is not in the best condition; it has some scuffs and very light corrosion. However a judicious buffing could remove many of these minor imperfections.

-This watch should be professionally serviced, which typically runs between $100 and $250. Combined with a replacement crown, total servicing costs would be in the $150 to $350 range. This would push the total cost of the piece up to $825 to $1,025, which is still a fair price given its condition and desirability.

 

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The 7 Worst Collectibles for Investors

The 7 Worst Collectibles for Investors

While I advocate the careful accumulation of high quality antiques for investment purposes, it is important to choose the right antiques. Unfortunately, there are some collectibles that are now, and always have been, bad investments. Welcome to the Antique Sage’s list of the top 7 worst collectibles of all time for investors, presented in no particular order. Please note that I’ve intentionally left Beanie Babies off this list because they are so terrible I don’t even consider them to be collectibles!

 

1) Thomas Kinkade Paintings and Prints

Thomas Kinkade, the self-proclaimed “Painter of Light”, has been one of the most prolific and financially successful artists of the late 20th century. In fact, he was so successful that his company, Media Arts Group Inc., had franchised 350 Thomas Kinkade Signature Gallery stores across the U.S. at its peak. But in order to keep that many shops filled with merchandise, Kinkade had to break one of the ironclad rules of fine art: you can’t mass produce it.

As a result, Kinkade’s company estimated that his works hung in an astonishing 1 out of every 20 American homes. Of course, once online marketplaces took off on the internet in the late 1990s, everyone realized just how many of Kinkade’s works were floating around out there. Demand collapsed as everyone who could ever possibly want a Thomas Kinkade work already owned two!

It also didn’t help that Kinkade’s cloyingly saccharin, neo-Norman Rockwellesque style was completely out of step with the late 20th century’s cultural zeitgeist. This is a major demerit according to the Antique Sage’s 5 rules for investment grade art and antiques, and renders Thomas Kinkade’s art among the worst collectibles you can buy.

 

2) Hummel Figurines

These delightfully cute porcelain miniatures were inspired by the bucolic drawings of Sister Maria Innocentia Hummel – a German Catholic nun. Beginning in 1935, her sketches were reimagined as 3-dimensional porcelain figurines. Hummel figurines were very popular with U.S. military service members in Europe after World War II, who often purchased them for their loved ones back in the States.

Unfortunately, W. Goebel Porzellanfabrik, the corporate manufacturer of this pastoral kitsch, could not resist the urge to ramp up production to pad its profits. Over the course of several decades, Hummel figurines became ubiquitous, showing up for sale in places as varied as airport gift shops and Hallmark stores. Once their obsessive collector base began to age out, demand plummeted while supply remained abundant.

Today, over 90% of Hummel figurines on eBay sell for less than $100. And in all probability, they are still wildly overvalued. Avoid Hummel figurines like the plague if return on your money is important to you. They are one of the worst collectibles out there.

 

3) Anything from the Franklin Mint

When I say anything from the Franklin mint is a bad collectible, I mean anything! The Franklin Mint has been scamming collectors out of their hard earned money for over 50 years. Since it was first established in the mid 1960s, this fraud factory has cynically and opportunistically striven to create the most banal collectibles known to man. These have ranged from medals and coins to jewelry, dolls and die cast toys.

The Franklin Mint’s only goal is to make money. To this end, it uses its considerable marketing muscle to artificially create demand or interest in a series. It then churns these woefully subpar collectibles out until the market is saturated. Predictably, this is not a winning scenario for producing investment grade collectibles. But it does launch all Franklin Mint products onto my list of the worst collectibles ever.

 

4) Modern Baseball Cards

The baseball card market experienced a massive bubble from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. Sports fans, speculators and pre-pubescent boys across America suddenly became obsessed with the minutiae of price movements – which were usually up – as reported by the Beckett Baseball Card Price Guide. As you can probably guess, it all came crashing down a few short years later.

But the real problem during this period was that the big four baseball card manufacturers – Topps, Upper Deck, Fleer and Donruss – used the bubble as an opportunity to make gargantuan profits. They released an ever increasing number and variety of baseball cards, some of which had special gimmicks like holograms or foil accents.

In conjunction with this huge increase in production, baseball card collectors hoarded the glut of new cards in the (false) hope that they would one day pay for college or a new car. In reality, all they ended up being was one of the worst collectibles of the modern era. Even today, the world is overrun with baseball card sets from the 1980s and later, all in near perfect condition.

Although I don’t generally advocate buying baseball cards for investment purposes, if you must collect them, at least stick to older, pre-1980s cards.

 

5) Modern Commemorative Stamps

Stamp collecting is a dying hobby. Unfortunately, the U.S. Postal Service, along with many other national post offices, didn’t get the memo, because they just keep churning them out. The USPS prints dozens of different types of stamps in any given year, with a large number of these being “commemorative” issues.

However, they largely commemorate contrived events and irrelevant people. For example, right now you can buy U.S. stamps commemorating the Dominican fashion designer Oscar de la Renta or the Catholic priest/president of Notre Dame University Father Theodore Hesburgh. If that doesn’t appeal to you, there is always the thoroughly corny “Have a Ball!” round baseball stamp.

Good grief! No wonder stamp collecting is dying. The issuing authorities are treating it like a profit center, which it is, at least until the last stamp collector gets snowed under by a pile of meaningless commemorative stamps and finally gives up. If rare vintage stamps are a hard sell in today’s world (and they are), then modern commemorative stamps are simply one of the worst collectibles out there.

 

6) Modern Commemorative Coins

The U.S. Mint took a page from the U.S. Postal Service and decided that striking millions of poorly designed, uninspiring commemorative coins was the ticket to both quick profits and a disgruntled collector base. Right now you can buy yourself a Lions Club International Centennial silver dollar or a Boys Town Centennial half-dollar for far, far more money than they will ever be worth.

If this does not appeal to you, then there is a high likelihood that you will view most of the U.S. Mint’s current product portfolio as a blatant money grab. Of course, other national mints, like the British Royal Mint or the French Monnaie de Paris, have exactly the same problem. They mint dozens of different coin issues in staggeringly large quantities (for non-circulating coins) and then somehow expect the secondary market price not to collapse. It rarely obliges them, however, making modern commemorative coins pretty terrible investments, with few exceptions.

 

7) Modern Comic Books

Some old comic books can be profoundly rare and incredibly valuable, like Action Comics #1 from 1938, which features the very first appearance of Superman. And then there are comic books from the modern age, with their massive print runs and tired gimmicks. These modern comics invariably have little monetary value.

For example, in 1992 DC Comics released its much heralded “Death of Superman” story arc. This evocative title was a naked ploy to tug at people emotionally, as well as get them to open up their wallets for what was sure to be a highly desirable collectible.

But DC Comics was busy churning and burning its fan base. They printed dozens of variations of this epic theme, each one intended to boost sales by appealing to legions of comic book collectors and investors. However, in the process, their cynical and aggressive sales methods more or less eviscerated the modern comic collectible scene. Even today it is easy to buy pristine examples of the overhyped “Death of Superman” comic books for just a few dollars or less.

Congratulations DC Comics. You’ve almost single-handedly placed your industry onto the Antique Sage’s top 7 worst collectibles list!

 

If you detect a trend in my list of the worst collectibles of all time, you are right. Modern collectibles that have been mass-produced by profit driven enterprises are almost always terrible investments. And where the term “mass-produced” used to mean tens or hundreds of thousands of copies 50 years ago, it can easily mean millions or even tens of millions today. With numbers like that, these terrible collectibles will never be worth much.

 

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